GBPJPY analysis - next week Feb 2nd outlook

0 comments Saturday, January 31, 2009

h4 chart at market closing

Price is currently already above the the daily upper trendline; which is drawn from Sept 24th to Jan 7th. Now it is testing the 130.00 resistance zone and could either break it or rebound from the it.

However, the trend reversal, if any, should only be confirmed if the price breaks 135.00 resistance level; which coincides with daily EMA50.

On the downside, a move below 128.00 level should dictates that the downtrend is still intact.

Meanwhile, the fundamental outlooks for Japanese yen and British pound are still bullish and bearish respectively at the moment. Therefore, the fundamental outlook for GBPJPY is still BEARISH. >:)

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GBPJPY analysis - British Pound Dominates Against the Majors on Massive Retracement - Can This Continue?

The British pound was the strongest of all the majors not only on Friday, but during the entire week, as the currency trades in a highly speculative manner. Indeed, over the past 5 days, the British pound has rallied 8.6 percent against the New Zealand dollar and roughly 6.3 percent against the euro and Japanese yen in an attempt to recoup the massive losses accumulated between October 2008 and January 2009.

However, with both Credit Suisse overnight index swaps and a Bloomberg News poll reflecting expectations that the Bank of England will cut rates by another 50 basis points at 7:00 ET on Thursday to a new record low of 1 percent., it’s worth wondering how far this British pound rally can extend.

There are few doubts that the BOE will at least consider slashing rates again since the UK remains in a deep recession and officials anticipate that things will only get worse. In fact, BOE Monetary Policy Committee Member David Blanchflower, who is easily the most outspoken and dovish member on the Committee, issued very dovish comments on January 29, saying that the UK economy may face a recession worse than that of the one in the 1980’s and that the Bank Rate needs to be cut “further and quickly.”

Furthermore, he said that the MPC has considered their options in the case that the Bank Rate is cut to zero, which was quite timely comment when you consider that Chancellor of the Exchequer Alistair Darling gave the BOE permission today to buy 50 billion pounds worth of bond and commercial paper in order to alleviate tight credit conditions. Overall, this leaves the odds in favor of year another rate cut by the BOE on February 5, but the reaction of the British pound may depend on what sort of bias is reflected in the Monetary Policy Committee’s subsequent statement.


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GBPJPY analysis - dragonfly at daily??

0 comments Friday, January 30, 2009

daily chart - as of 11.30 am Malaysia

A dragonfly candle has appeared on the daily chart. Should yesterday's low (126.49) is broken, this might signify a beginning of downwards move.

As I was away from chart this morning, I entered my sell position a little bit late. However, my position is currently at +50. [-o< Now thinking to hold the position for a few days. >:)
6.00 pm - tough trading day #:-S
all my sell positions stopped out at +1
decided to wait until price breaks this morning low
otherwise I will stay out
9.00 pm - at last, a bearish candle came out on the hourly chart
hopefully, the beast keep dropping... [-o<

9.35 pm - some US news caused the price to whipsaw
stopped out at +1
re-sell at 128.26; SL locked at +1 again =))
10.27 pm - closed at +40
done for the week
lesson for the day: DO NOT TRADE DURING MONTH END :))

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GBPJPY analysis - bears are back??

0 comments Thursday, January 29, 2009

chart h4 - 10 am Malaysia

A doji followed by a bearish candle should indicate a trend continuation. Should the bears come back strongly, fib expansion 161.8% shows a possibility for the beast to hit 101.74 in coming weeks.>:)

By the way, my sell position is currently +50; SL rest at +3.
1.00 pm - +154 and +84
both positions locked in profit
no more risk [-o<
stressless trading b-)
3.15 pm - added another sell at 126.903
now at +195, +126 and +29
all positions locked in profit....
will ride the roller coaster all the way down... :D
4.30 pm - price action started to get choppy...
decided to take 2/3 of the profit..
the other 1/3 - all locked in profit..
done for the day [-o<

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GBPJPY analysis - 122.xx today??

0 comments Wednesday, January 28, 2009

chart h1 - 6 am Malaysia

I believe the bears will come out today... >:)

As long as the price stays below 126.00 (which is the fib 50% level of yesterday hi-lo) and provided that the yellow trendline is pierced, my target projections will be:
  1. yesterday low - 124.23
  2. fib 138.2% level - 122.92
  3. fib 161.8% level -122.11

Good luck and happy pipping ;))
9.00 am - smart bears... :))
pushed the price up to 127.00 to trap those poor bulls=((
went short at 126.80
+94 already; SL rest at +10 [-o<

9.25 am - managed to close at +85
1.30 pm - weird price action :-/
market moves erratically and have no direction...
might stay out today...
9.10 pm - getting bored already (:|
called it a day...
11.00 pm - stubborn me :">
decided to take a calculated risk
a abandoned baby pattern has appeared on the hourly chart
looks like the lower trendline will be broken soon
my stop-loss is 30 pips above the candle's high
let's see whether it will be stopped out or not :-ss
11.48 pm - SL hit :(
forgot about crude oil result coming out at 11.30 pm

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GBPJPY analysis - short term bullish???

0 comments Tuesday, January 27, 2009

chart h4 - 10 am Malaysia

A bullish candle on the daily indicates a possible rally to 127.00 - 128.00 region. Even though the price might go down to 122.40 (fib 50% level), a tight stop-loss must be placed above yesterday's high (125.00).

As the price is now moves within 124.00 - 125.00, it is better to stay out until the beast breaks out from this tight range....
11.30 am - price breaks upward
not comfortable with the situation
decided to stay out and wait for bull exhaustion...
5.30 pm - bulls still look strong...
still out of position...
6.00 pm - went short at 126.88
reasons: 1. the price breached the previous candle's low
2. the significance of round number (127.00)
3. the price closed below 138.2 fib level
initial stop-loss : 127.93 (30 pips above swing high)
now +30, SL rest at +1
TP: not decided yet

6.40 pm - +100, SL rest at +30
let's pray the beast keep on dropping [-o<
8.00 pm - tough day for trading
choppy price action
SL hit and then dived 160 pips
well.... as long we are in profit, just accept it.. :d
10.00 pm - a bearish candle has formed on the h4 chart
price was rejected by the weekly 50% fib level...
will the bears come out from the woods now? :-?

11.00 pm - bad US consumer confidence result pulled the baby down...
now +85 [-o<
11.25 pm - closed at +50
price action still choppy
done for the day.. :d

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GBPJPY analysis - descending triangle??

3 comments Monday, January 26, 2009

chart h1 - 10 am Malaysia

A possible descending triangle is forming on the hourly chart. As long as the price remains below the upper trendline, bears are very much in control...

Should the price breaks the bottom trendline, the triangle height indicates a 600 pips downwards move.

Let's see how the market play it out... :D

1.00 pm - spinning top at h1 chart??
went short at 121.63
my stop-loss at 122.35 will save me;
in case I'm wrong :-ss
1.54 pm - +97 :-o
SL rest at +50 [-o<
2.00 pm - stopped out at +50
will keep looking for other sell entries
the trend is still DOWN... B-)
6.30 pm - upper trendline is broken...
hibernating time for the bears...I-)
will stay out for the time being...
9.08 pm - re-sell at 124.05 as price struggled to break 124.00
now +40; SL rest at +10 [-o<

9.30 pm - +107; decided to set trailing SL by 80 pips
will take whatever market gives...
too tired already; need some rest...
see you tomorrow, guys :-h

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GBPJPY analysis - pre-market analysis

0 comments Saturday, January 24, 2009

h4 chart at market closing

Next week, I will watching closely whether the price could break the 124.00 - 125.00 resistance zone. As long as the price remains below 125.00, my outlook will still remains bearish.

Should the price breaks the previous low (118.81), the beast should easily hit 115.00 region soon....

Happy trading and good luck... B-)

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GBPJPY analysis - 118.50 next??

2 comments Friday, January 23, 2009

chart 15 min - 3.15 pm Malaysia

Price is currently entrapped between the two trendlines. Now I am waiting the price to pierce the confluence of lower trendline and yesterday's low.

Should the price breaks downwards, my target projections are 119.50 and 118.50; which are the fib levels of 138.2% and 161.8% respectively.
3.52 pm - looks like yesterday's low is going to be broken
I went short at 121.58 due to 76.4% fib rejection
already +45, already moved SL to +5[-o<
4.18 pm - London bridge is falling down.. falling down \:d/
5.28 pm - +144; SL rest at +50
5.45 pm - 119.50 hit....
closed half position at +200
6.12 pm - decided to close the other half position at +190
done for the week... :D [-o<

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GBPJPY analysis - a little bit bullish???

0 comments Thursday, January 22, 2009

h1 chart - 10 am Malaysia

A bullish pinbar has formed on the daily chart. However, the crazy move of 500 pips spike yesterday was due to the UJ currency option expiry; which might not reflects the true picture of market situation.

Right now, I consider the range between 123.00 and 125.50 as "no man's land". No trade will be taken within that area.

Simply said, a breakout above 125.50 would indicate a temporary break of the current downtrend. Meanwhile, a breakout below 123.00 indicates trend continuation.

Meanwhile, I would stay out on the sidelines. B-) Nobody ever lose their account by staying out... :-B
6.45 pm - still out of trade
qoute of the day:
"it's not about trading EVERY day, it's about trading
that ONE RIGHT DAY...... you make money by waiting,
not by trading... sounds so silly nobody wants to
believe it, but it's true"
7.00 pm - at last, 123.00 broken...
let's start the party <:-p \:d/
8.00 pm - price dropped to 122.00
closed half position
the other half rest at +30 [-o<

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GBPJPY analysis - spinning top at h1 chart

0 comments Wednesday, January 21, 2009

chart h1 - 12 pm Malaysia

A spinning top has appeared at the confluence of daily fib 76.4% level and the resistance cluster. Take note of the 126.00 level - "round number" significance.

Looks bears are still too strong. Should the support at 124.24 breaks, my target projection is at the 121.00 region. :D

Note: Today's fib 132.8% and 161.8% levels are at 122.22 and 120.70 respectively.
12.48 pm - +30; SL moved to +1
1.50 pm - choppy price action
price kept ranging within 40 pips range
decided to close at +30
stay out now...
3.10 pm - re-enter sell position at 124.80
reason: immediate trendline rejection
now +32; SL rest at +1

3.28 pm - stopped out at +1
better wait for London open..
4.08 pm - London bridge is falling down... falling down \:d/
will 120.70 be hit today?>:)
4.43 pm - took partial profit at +90 [-o<
11.30 pm - 121.00 hit <:-p \:d/ [-o< ....
what can i say.... B-)

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GBPJPY analysis - new low on the way??

7 comments Tuesday, January 20, 2009

chart h1 - 8.30 am Malaysia

The beast moved so swift; my sell position is already +85 within minutes. Now watching closely whether last week low could be penetrated or not.
8.50 am - already +105; SL rest at +10
TP: infinity =))
8.56 am - looks 128.82 is going to be broken...
138.2% fibo is at 128.41
161.8% fibo is at 127.16
let's see how low the beast will go....
9.25 am - took profit at +100
market is in cautious mode right now
will wait for next step-up
11.30 am - second attempt to break support
re-sell at 128.95 TP: 127.16 (fibo 161.8%)
my 50 pips stop-loss will save me if I'm wrong :-SS

12.26 pm - what a breakout :-o
+50 pip already
SL rest at +5 [-o<
2.00 pm - was away from chart
the beast dived 148 pips but retraced afterwards
stopped out at +50 [-o<
3.11 pm - price bounced off 129.00;
which means 129.00 has becomes a resistance
entered a quick scalp for +30 B-)
4.35 pm - hit my TP 127.20 [-o<
banked-in another 95 pips \:d/
done for the day....
no need to over trade :">

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GBPJPY analysis - bulls, better watch out...

0 comments Monday, January 19, 2009
Investors should sell the U.K. currency against both the yen and the dollar on speculation more than $1 trillion of asset writedowns worldwide and rising credit losses will damp demand for riskier assets, Stretch said. It may drop to $1.40 and 1.285 yen in the “next couple of weeks,” he said.

source: Bloomberg

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GBPJPY analysis - 1st trade of the week...


chart 15 min - 11.45 am Malaysia

Price bounced off Friday high level and forming a engulfing bearish candle. Went short at 135.51 with a stop-loss placed at 136.01. Target projection is at 133.50 (fibo 50% level of Friday hi-lo).
12.55 pm - market moves too sloooooow to my liking
now +18 right now
moved SL to +1
1.00 pm +38 [-o<
2.30 pm price went down 80 pip before going up
stopped out at +30
3.15 pm sell again at 134.44
+55 within two minutes :-O
3.22 pm fibo 50% broken significantly...
will ride the roller coaster down.....\:d/
3.50 pm decided to close at +145 [-o<
4.42 pm re-sell at 133.70 based on 1-minute price action
+46 now, SL rest at +5[-o<
targeting Friday low now
5.00 pm +89, decided to set trailing stop by 50 pips
not feeling well today
will accept whatever market gives :">
5.10 pm closed out at +50
enough for the day :D
take note US banks are on holiday today..
market might moves slow afterwards

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GBPJPY analysis - last week price action review

0 comments Saturday, January 17, 2009

h4 chart at market close

Price went down to 129.5 region which is the 138.2% fibo level of previous week hi-lo. Then it went 620 pip but still unable to break 61.8% level; which usually is an indication that bears are still in control.

Next week there are several resistances for the bulls to test, namely:
  1. the immediate trendline
  2. fibo 61.8% level
  3. fibo 50% level

As long the price remains below fibo 50%, my bias will stays bearish. Should the price be able to break 129.50, it might try to go to 124.00 :-SS

By the way, keep your stop-loss tight and trade what you see... :d
Good luck and happy trading...

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GBPJPY analysis - dark cloud cover at h1???

0 comments Friday, January 16, 2009

chart h1 - 3 pm Malaysia

Stayed away from chart this morning as I didn't take the bullish set-up. Now a bearish dark cloud cover has appeared at the hourly chart. Might be a sign of bull exhaustion.

Already moved my stop-loss (initially at 134.65) to +5 with a target projection of 131.82 (fibo 50% level of the yesterday bull run).
3.40 pm - stopped out at +5
will wait London open...
4.00 pm - re-entered sell position at 134.01
SL - 134.64 TP - 131.82
4.45 pm - crazy price action
closed at +5 again
8.00 pm - went short as a doji has appeared at h1 chart
12.45 am - hit TP 200 pips [-o<

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GBPJPY analysis - inverted hammer at daily???

0 comments Thursday, January 15, 2009

daily and h1 chart - 8am Malaysia

An inverted hammer has appeared on the daily chart, which alerts sellers that buyers might be lurking nearby. My today trading strategy is to stay out until the market shows us the next direction by breaking any of the trendlines drawn on the hourly chart.
2.45 pm - price in sideway mode
moving within 80 pips range
currently, bulls still have a slight advantage
a breakout might be imminent...
4.30 pm - sorry guys...
could not resist a sell from rebounce set-up :">
already +50, stop-loss moved to +5
possible TP: 129.00 (next support line)

5.00 pm - closed half position at +100
the other half rest at +35
10.00 pm - good US news at 9.30 pm pushed the beast up
still staying out as I don't trade news
10.45 pm - the beast is diving... :-O
not sure why it is happening...
should yesterday low is broken, 127.20 might be hit

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GBPJPY analysis - pinbar at h1???

0 comments Wednesday, January 14, 2009

chart h1 - 5 pm

A pinbar has formed at h1 chart - a high reliability reversal candle. Already shorted earlier as the price bounced from resistance zone at 132.00.

Already +100 pip. Stop-loss rest at +5. B-)
5.50 pm - already +200 pip
hopefully wil keep diving...
first target - yesterday low (128.82)
second target - 127.38 (fibo 138.2% level)
last target - 126.49 (fibo 161.8%)
11.00 pm - decided to close all positions at 130.00
market looks uncertain at the moment...

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GBPJPY analysis - very,very obedient....


chart h1 - 12 pm Malaysia

Price is rejected by fibo 50% level and a engulfing bearish candle has formed. Usually a strong indication of trend continuation. Initial stop-loss is placed at 131.00. Will move the stop-loss to +1 once reached +30 profit.

First target is yesterday low (128.82)
Second target is 127.38 (fibo 138.2% level)
Last target is 126.49 (fibo 161.8%)
1.30 pm - stopped out at -73
will stay out now
and wait for another set up
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GBPJPY analysis - 300 pips downwards breakout??

2 comments Tuesday, January 13, 2009

chart h1 - 6 am Malaysia

Three black crows had formed at the daily chart; which indicates that the current trend is extremely bearish. Meanwhile, at the hourly chart, a possible bearish flag pattern might be in progress.

Should this bearish flag is valid, a breakout on the downwards side could be anticipated. The pole height could be used as a target projection; which means the price could make a new low at 128.64. :-?
2.00 pm - looks like the bear party has started <:-P
3.45 pm - closed half position at +100, the other half rest at +5
5.30 pm - still stuck at 130.xx psychological level
bulls and bears are still fighting :))
8.30 pm - new record low 129.77
but bulls are still fighting hard ~x(
9.30 pm - closed all sell positions
good US trade balance; might push the beast up
Woke up next morning and found out that a NEW HISTORY LOW (128.82)
was made... just 18 pips shy from my prediction :">

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GBPJPY analysis - 134.40 next??

0 comments Monday, January 12, 2009

chart h1 - 8 am Malaysia

As expected, the price gapped down this morning. Now it is testing 136.00 S/R zone. Should this S/R zone is penetrated, it might drop to next S/R zone, which is at 134.40.

By the way, Tokyo is on holiday today. Let's see whether there are enough bears around to push the beast down or not... :D
5.00 pm - London bridge is falling down; falling down \:D/
closed half position at 134.50
the other half rest at +10 [-o<
ok, guys, shut down your laptop and go somewhere else >:)

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GBPJPY analysis - will this gap remains until market open?

0 comments Sunday, January 11, 2009
let's see whether this gap remains until market open or not.... :-"

                    chart removed

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GBPJPY analysis - reversal in progress??

0 comments Friday, January 9, 2009

Daily and hourly charts - 5.30 am Malaysia

Still half an hour to go for the candles closing. Head and shoulder pattern is currently in formation at the hourly chart. I am expecting the neckline to be broken soon due to the evening star formation; which is a high reliability reversal indication; at the daily chart.

Should the price breaks the neckline, my target projection is at the next support (135.44).

Note: I will stop trading before US session and stay out during the NFP result announcement.
4.00 pm - dull Tokyo market (:|
my sell position was stopped out at +15
now still waiting for the neckline to be broken :-w
11.20 pm - neckline broken [-o<
what else can I say :-"

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GBPJPY analysis - my sweet baby....

0 comments Thursday, January 8, 2009

chart 15 min - 6.15 pm Malaysia

Re-entered another sell position as price was rejected by fibo 50%. Also an abandoned baby pattern has been formed. By the time I posted this chart, my sweet baby had dived 50 pips. Stop-loss moved to +5. Possible target projection is at 161.8% fibo (135.58).
7.30 pm - stopped out at +10
enough for the day :D
8.00 pm - lucky me #:-S
BOE decided to stay with 1.5% interest rate
price shot up 100 pips

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GBPJPY analysis - doji at daily???


Daily chart - at 9 am Malaysia

A doji candle has formed at daily chart, which might indicates buyers are now uncertain whether to push the price further up or not. A failure to break yesterday high could signify that the bulls might be exhausted; at least for the time being.

Now I am waiting for the price to break lower trendline at H1 chart before deciding to go SHORT. Should I decide to go short, my stop-loss will be placed slightly above yesterday high (141.55).

Latest news from Bloomberg:
Bank of England May Cut Benchmark Interest Rate to Record Low

chart 30min - 10.30 am Malaysia

Price is now testing the lower trendline
I went short early based on 15min price action
now already +30, stop-loss moved to +1
let's see whether the trendline will be broken?
my 1st target is yesterday low

3.00 pm +90, SL moved to +30
should yesterday low (137.95) is hit,next TP is 135.73
3.42 pm 1st target hit [-o< B-)
welcome back, bears <:-P

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GBPJPY analysis - uncertainty...

0 comments Wednesday, January 7, 2009

chart h4 - 2 pm Malaysia

Price is in stagnant phase as it has reached an important S/R zone. Market is waiting for clues for next move.

I will rather wait for a breakout of either previous high or low (140.86 and 138.90 respectively) to be sure of next direction...
5.00 pm - 138.90 broken convincingly...
my short position is already in green [-o<
my gut feeling is telling me that the rally is over
bears should come out from the jungle anytime now :o)

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GBPJPY analysis - 138.20 next??


chart h1 - 6 am Malaysia

A doji followed by a long bearish candle indicate a possible downward move. I went short at 139.92 with the target projection at 138.20 (fibo 50% level of yesterday hi-lo).

Currently, already +18. As usual, I will move my stop-loss to +1 once the profit reach +30.
8.45 am - crazy bull :))
stopped out at +1
will stay out until London open

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GBPJPY analysis - rising three method???

0 comments Tuesday, January 6, 2009

chart h4 - 6.20 pm Malaysia
Price had closed above yesterday high. A rising three method pattern had also formed at H4 chart, which usually a high reliable trend continuation signal.
I went long at 138.04 with a profit-taking target at 140.44. Stop-loss is at 136.84 (120 pips risk).
8.00 pm - decided to cut loss at -70
as a bearish candle had appeared at h1 chart...
done for the day...
net profit: 20 pips :))
11.30 pm - could not resist myself :">
reentered buy position as price breaks 138.00 again
2.00 am - price hit my target projection 140.44 [-o<
LESSON OF THE DAY : stick to your plan B-)

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GBPJPY analysis - 135.21 next??


chart h1 - 7 am Malaysia
The immediate trend has turned bullish as the previous resistance zone at 134.00 has been broken. The beast moved 460 pips to hit yesterday high at 137.55. Now I am expecting the price to go down to 50% fibonacci retracement (135.21) before next direction could be determined.

I went short at 136.97 due to the engulfing bearish candle with a stop-loss at 137.75 (20 pips above yesterday high). Will move the stop-loss to +1 if the profit hit +30.

Let see whether Tokyo market agrees with my expectation or not... :-B
8.30 am - already +30
moved stop-loss to +1
now I am safe #:-S
3.30 pm - price could only go down to 135.44
a potential of 146 pips gain
decided to take profit at +90 [-o<

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GBPJPY analysis - bounced off 134.00???

0 comments Monday, January 5, 2009

chart h4 - 10 am Malaysia
as expected, 134.00 remained a tough resistance
a bearish harami candle might signify that the bears are trying to take over
based on prior price action at the smaller time-frames, i went short at 133.91 with an initial stop-loss placed at 134.50
now already +90 and SL moved to +10 [-o<
7.00 pm - was away from chart
the beast went up to 135.70
my position was stopped out at +20
will stay out from market for the rest of the day

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Welcome 2009

0 comments Saturday, January 3, 2009
Welcome back, guys...
let's get back to the business..
to be frank, I do not like what I see on the chart...
the beast moved erratically in a low volume market during the year-end holiday...

let's take a look on the daily chart...
price moved within two converging trendlines, forming a falling wedge pattern...
price made a new low (129.82) on Dec 30th...
however, price bounced up and rose above the upper trendline on Jan 2nd...

in a normal day, I would have declared that the downtrend has ended...
however, the bulls still need to break 139-140 resistance zone to win the battle....
furthermore, the fundamental outlook is still dovish at the moment...

meanwhile, my current bias is neutral and will take a trade at a time... B-)

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