Impact of U.S Interest Rate Hike
9 years ago
Friday, October 31, 2008 chart h1 - 2 pm Malysia possible head and shoulder formation??? should price breaks 158.50, i might go short TP 154.00 UPDATE: at 2.38 pm, 158.50 broken... at 3.25 pm, price hit 156.15 (+220 pips gain) [-o< Thursday, October 30, 2008 chart h1 - 11 am Malaysia rising wedge pattern??? usually a bearish trend continuation indication... so be patient, bears.... we gonna have fun soon  UPDATE: 5.30 pm - price made 1st attempt to break the lower trendline... managed to bank in 250 pips based on prior price action at 5 min chart let's see whether bears will continue to dominate the market... B-) at 10.45 pm, price hit 159.29 (400 pips drop)  daily and h1 chart - 6.45 am Malaysia bearish hanging man at daily chart?? downwards move should be confirmed when the h1 lower trendline is broken... stop loss should be placed slightly above yesterday high... UPDATE: at 5.30 pm, price made 1st attempt to break the lower trendline... let's see whther the price will continue to drop or not... :-?  chart h1 - 1 am Malaysia macd 5,13,1 is the only indicator that i use to gauge market sentiment... possible regular bearish divergence.. indicates bull exhaustion... however, fomc statement is coming up in an hour or so... so better watch out... :-SS more on trading divergences at babypips UPDATE: by 2 am, price dropped 70 pips already moved SL to +30 pips now waiting for fomc.... Wednesday, October 29, 2008 chart h4 - 10 am Malaysia bull camp is already shouting, "TREND REVERSAL!!!!" well.... this chart suggests that yesterday upsurge is merely a retracement... price is rejected by weekly 50% fibo level... bearish harami candle indicates that the bears might come out from the woods... let's see how the market will play it out... :D Tuesday, October 28, 2008
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Saturday, October 25, 2008
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Friday, October 24, 2008 h1 chart - 11 pm Malaysia spinning top candle?? will fibo 61.8% act as a resistance?? IF and ONLY IF, next candle turns bearish... i might go short with stop-loss sightly above the spinning top... and my TP at 161.8% fibo level (126.50) this is how you should plan your trade and trade your plan... :d UPDATE: 12 am candle remained bullish as price tested 50% fibo level will wait next set-up... Thursday, October 23, 2008 chart h1 - 6.45 pm Malaysia bulls and bears are still fighting at the battlefield... should this morning tokyo low is broken, 151.50 will be my TP... otherwise, i'm staying out... b-) UPDATE: 1st breakout to 155.50 at 8.45 pm... managed to bank in 130 pips... lets see whether the beast will make another attempt or not at 3 am, price hit 154.50 - potential of 350 pips gain Wednesday, October 22, 2008 chart h1 - 11 pm Malaysia bearish flag still in play... confirmed shooting star formation... the beast should start diving soon... :-w UPDATE: bearish flag broken by 11.30 pm already +130 pip at 3.30 am, price hit 158.00 [-o< <:-P \:d/  chart h1 - 6 pm Malaysia bearish flag pattern??? AGAIN??? should price breaks this morning low, 157.xx might be on the way... B-) UPDATE: at 7.15 pm, this morning low is broken... already +90 (entry based on smaller TF set-up) stopped at +45 will wait for next short entry price hit 157.70 at 3.40 am [-o<  daily chart possible bearish flag pattern... will the beast dive 3,200 pips within next two weeks??? :-?? By Ye Xie and Agnes Lovasz Oct. 21 (Bloomberg) -- The yen climbed to a three-year high against the euro and gained versus the dollar on bets central banks will lower borrowing costs to limit the global economic slump, encouraging investors to sell higher-yielding assets. more at Bloomberg Tuesday, October 21, 2008 h4 charts - 4.30 pm Malaysia another half an hour for the current candle to close... however, falling three methods pattern is developing.... strong trend continuation indication.... my new sell position is already +40 [-o< UPDATE: as of 7.40 pm, price has touched 171.00 potential gain of 120 pips at 12 am, price dived to 169.00 another 200 pip gain [-o<  chart h1 - 7 am Malaysia another bearish flag??? to be confirmed with lower trendline penetration... possible TP: 170.xx good luck.... :d UPDATE: by 2.15 pm, price penetrated the trendline decided to banked-in 200 pips at 3.30 pm... will wait for another set-up price hit 169.00 at 12 am 8-> Monday, October 20, 2008 chart 15 min - 8.15 pm Malaysia bearish pennant pattern??? should the pattern is valid and price breaks downwards.... this beast should touch 174.20 soon.... B-) UPDATE: by 11 pm, 174.00 was hit and still dropping....  h4 and h1 charts - 5 pm Malaysia price is testing the h4 trendline and daily fibo 23.6% level... two black crows formed at h1 chart... price still choppy at lower time frames... still out of trade today... next h4 candle should show next direction... UPDATE: as of 7.15 pm, price has dropped 150 pips... already locked some pips... should the lower trendline is broken, price might drop furthermore... just ride the profit... \:D/  chart h1 - 10.45 am Malaysia waiting for h1 candle to close.... a high possibility of evening star formation... however, better wait for lower trendline penetration before going short... and stop loss should be slightly above this morning high... UPDATE: price went up - invalid set up... still no trade yet today... Saturday, October 18, 2008 h4 chart at market closing price consolidates at minor S/R zones (175.xx) my bias still remains bearish as long as price is below 181.36... let's be patient and see how the market will play it out... meanwhile, take care of your margin.... :d Friday, October 17, 2008 chart h4 - 5.15 pm Malaysia abandoned baby pattern...??? let's pray that beast keeps tanking... UPDATE: my new sell position already in profit +60 pips already moved SL to +ve... closed at +20 price is really crazy... :))  chart h1 - 3 pm Malaysia uncertainty.... still waiting for any breakout from the yellow S/R lines and i'm still bearish-biased.... UPDATE: by 3.45 pm, price broke downwards 110 pips already locked +20 pips price is still choppy... trade closed at 4:30 pm +65  h4 & h1 charts - 1 am Malaysia today's choppy price action is really annoying... market moves cautiously... no clear direction yet... however, engulfing bearish candle has appeared on h4 chart... downwards move should only be confirmed when the lower trendline at h1 is broken... better wait.... no need to rush... :D UPDATE: at 3 am Malaysia price went up to re-test fibo 50%(175.65) will look for another set-up Thursday, October 16, 2008 daily and h1 charts - 5.15 am Malaysia daily charts - bottom closing marubozu; extremely bearish candle price might retrace up to daily 50% fibo level (175.62) today strategy: sell on rallies - possible TP 168.80 (161.8% fibo level)  h1 chart - 12.30 am Malaysia still waiting patiently for price to break the tough support... otherwise, will stay out.... UPDATE: support broken at 1.30 am let's pray it will go down to 174.00 decided to take profit at 174.50 done for the day [-o< Wednesday, October 15, 2008 chart h1 and 15min - 3.45 pm Malaysia chart h1 - evening star pattern in progress chart 15min - to go short when a full 15min candle forms below the green trendline... UPDATE: trendline broken at 4.45 pm tank babe tank... +30 pips by 5 pm moved SL to +5 now i'm safe B-)  daily and h4 charts - 12 pm Malaysia shooting star at daily charts - needs further confirmation three black crows at h4 chart - indicates bears are in charge will keep looking for short position entry 1st TP - 174.00 (161.8% fibo level of yesterday high low)  chart h4 - 1 am Malaysia possible reversal bearish candle?? weekly 23.6 fibo level rejection?? if next h4 candle remains bearish, this beast should continue going down.... UPDATE: daily candle closed at 177.54 two black crows pattern has formed... downtrend should continue... Tuesday, October 14, 2008 h4 and h1 charts - 5 pm Malaysia market is in indecision mode conflicting signals in h4 and h1 charts h4 chart - bearish evening doji star pattern h1 chart - bullish flag pattern better wait at sidelines for breakout of S/R green lines at h1.... UPDATE: price breakout on the upper S/R line at 7 pm... might go to 185.xx +80 pips by 7.15pm already locked some profit closed at +100 the price action is not "convincing" to re-evaluate the market again
Yen Extends Decline as Treasury Said to Invest in U.S. Banks
By Stanley White and Ye Xie Oct. 14 (Bloomberg) -- The yen fell for a second day on speculation the U.S. Treasury will stabilize the financial system by investing $125 billion in U.S. banks, spurring investors to buy high-yielding assets funded in Japan's currency. The yen also weakened against the Australian and New Zealand dollars, two favorites of so-called carry trades, after U.S. stocks yesterday gained the most in seven decades. European countries committed $1.8 trillion to guarantee bank loans and the Federal Reserve led efforts to flood money markets with dollars yesterday to prevent a financial system collapse. read more here... meanwhile, will stay out the market until the dust settles down....  chart h1 - 1 am Malaysia as expected, price retraced to weekly 50% fibo (176.00) a high-wave candle followed by a hanging man should confirmed downwards move entered a sell position at 175.20 with tight stop-loss (176.30) 1st TP - 170.68 UPDATE: SL hit - loss 90 pips Monday, October 13, 2008 monthly and h4 charts - 9 am Malaysia monthly trendline broken - shows that bear is still in charge however, pinbar or bullish hammer candle at daily chart indicates possible upwards retracement confluence of weekly 50% level and monthly trendline (176.00) as long as this resistance level are not broken, my sentiment stays BEARISH.. strategy: stay out of upwards retracement and wait for bearish continuation patterns should last week low is broken, my next TP is 153.xx let see how the market play it out.... DO NOT CHASE THE MARKET LET THE MARKET COME TO US.... B-) p/s... a high reliable abandoned baby pattern has formed at h4 chart UPDATE: by 10.30 am, price touched 168.56 potential 350 pips gain
Read On
 chart 15min - 6.30 am Malaysia bearish flag?? should the pattern is valid, expect a drop of 300-400 pips soon.. learn more about flag pattern here UPDATE: by 7.30 am, price dropped 100 pips already locked some pips... now i'm safe by 8.15 am, price touched 166.55 a dive of 356 pips #:-S  monthly chart monthly trendline broken..... two scenarios could happen:- 1. price would retrace upwards to re-test the trendline 2. price could dive to next support (148.19) by year-end most likely, scenario # 1 would happen as the 1st breakout is usually a false one... take note this is the MONTHLY chart... so the scenarios could take place in a few WEEKS period.. so, watch out and trade the chart.... me??? would stay out of any retracement upwards and wait for confirmation to load more shorts until the chart asks me to stop... =)) Thursday, October 9, 2008 chart h4 - 10.30 pm Malaysia low reliability bearish hanging man formed at 9 pm confirmation of down trend continuation at lower TFs... why should we buck against the trend? :-? UPDATE: price made new low 169.82 at 4.15 am what could i say more....??? B-)  chart h1 - 6 pm Malaysia bearish tweezer?? bounced off 50% daily fibo?? let get in the southward-bound train...... \:D/ UPDATE: get in at 174.50 already +50 by 6.40 pm moved SL to +5 +95 by 7.05 pm added another sell at 173.60 2nd sell closed at +5 Wednesday, October 8, 2008 chart h4 - 5 pm Malaysia should Monday low is broken, we might see 166.xx soon even beat my prediction on Aug 15th... see here scary ek... :-s  h1 chart - 12 pm Malaysia price in ranging mode breakout of tokyo range will determine next direction... as long as the price is below minor trendline, i am bearish biased... B-) UPDATE: 1.10 pm - tokyo low broken.... +70 pip by 1.15 pm... already in trailing mode.... hit TP +180 pip by 1:30 pm [-o< Tuesday, October 7, 2008 h1 chart - 1 pm Malaysia price upsurged due to Royal Bank of Australia rate cut shooting star candle at confluence of resistance area and daily 38.2% fibo will price now continue to go down?? let play it by ear... B-) UPDATE: by 2 pm, high reliability bearish evening star has formed downwards move is confirmed... let's pray Frankfurt push the baby down.... price went down 50 pips during London opening... moved SL to +5 pips stopped out at +5 :)) Monday, October 6, 2008 h1 chart - 10.03 pm Malaysia my favorite pattern - flag should dive 530 pips soon already +350 pip within minutes.... :-O [-o< UPDATED: unbelievable ... +500 pips by 10.15 pm.... [-o< [-o< Saturday, October 4, 2008
wow... what a week.... <:-P
market really moved during the festive season UPDATE: as of Monday 1 pm Malaysia, price dived to 180.689really enjoyed all the trades while celebrating Eid... ok.. let's move to next week possible outlook... ;) monthly chart - bearish two black crows; indicating bears are still in command weekly chart - three inside down pattern; usually a bearish continuation indication daily chart - bullish harami; however, any upward move should be limited to 50% monthly fibo (190.944) furthermore, the market is not impressed with the US $700b bailout plan; read here my strategy : wait for the retracement to complete before going SHORT again should the price pierced August low, we might reach 176.xx soon [-o<  around 580 pip from Friday close already secured some pips... let's see how low the baby will go... B-)
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U.S. Stocks Rally, Dow Jones Industrials Climb 889 Points
By Lynn Thomasson and Eric Martin
Oct. 28 (Bloomberg) -- Stocks rallied and the Dow Jones Industrial Average posted its second-best point gain ever as the cheapest valuations in 23 years lured investors and increased commercial paper sales signaled credit markets are thawing.
read more at Bloomberg