premarket GBPJPY analysis

0 comments Sunday, June 29, 2008

daily chart
price has bounced off 213.00 support
three outside down pattern has formed
possible southward journey to 208.50
which coincides with bottom trendline and previous support areas
recommended SL: 213.25 (160 pips risk)
possible TP: 208.50 (320 pips reward)
R:R ratio 1:2
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U.S. Stocks Fall, Dow Average Nears Bear Market as Banks Drop


June 28 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks slumped this week, pushing the Dow Jones Industrial Average to the brink of a bear market, on mounting concern that writedowns and record oil prices will keep eroding profit and economic growth.

JPMorgan Chase & Co., Citigroup Inc. and Bank of America Corp. led financial stocks in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index to the fourth week of declines, the longest streak since 2005. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. recommended investors sell bank shares because credit losses will linger into 2009. United Parcel Service Inc. fell the most since July 2006 after saying profit will miss its prior forecast because fuel costs and an ``anemic'' economy reduced demand for air shipments.

The Standard & Poor's 500 Index dropped 3 percent to 1,278.38, a three-month low. The Dow average retreated 4.2 percent to 11,346.51 and needs to fall another 0.1 percent to complete a bear-market decline of 20 percent from its October record. The Nasdaq Composite Index lost 3.8 percent to 2,315.63.

Source: Bloomberg

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Yen Advances to Two-Week High Versus Dollar on Risk Aversion

0 comments Saturday, June 28, 2008

June 27 (Bloomberg) -- The yen strengthened to a two-week high versus the dollar and advanced versus the euro as a slump in stock markets around the world reduced demand for higher- yielding assets funded by loans in Japan.

Japan's currency also erased a weekly decline against the euro as European Central Bank council member Miguel Angel Fernandez Ordonez said an interest-rate increase next week ``is not certain'' and a report showed confidence among European executives and consumers dropped this month. The Canadian dollar rose to a three-week high as oil surged to a record.

``A lot of investors are taking their cues from equities,'' said Sophia Drossos, a currency strategist at Morgan Stanley in New York. ``Sentiment seems to be damped on the renewed spike in oil and the global outlook.''

Source: Bloomberg

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GBPJPY analysis - possible retracement??

0 comments Friday, June 27, 2008

A breach of support at 211.6xx might signal a downward move
UPDATE: price reached a low of 210.75 (a potential gain 90 pips)
before went up to test the minor trendline
market closed at 211.71
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Japan Stock Futures Gain as Fed Comments Ease Slowdown Concern

0 comments Thursday, June 26, 2008

June 26 (Bloomberg) -- Japan's stock futures rose after the Federal Reserve said risks to growth have diminished, raising optimism that the biggest export market for Japanese-made goods will avoid a recession.

U.S.-traded receipts of Toyota Motor Corp. gained 1.5 percent from the closing share price in Tokyo yesterday, while Honda Motor Co. climbed 1.3 percent. Sony Corp. added 1.3 percent.

Nikkei 225 Stock Average futures expiring in September last traded at 13,925 in Chicago, higher than the close of 13,880 in Osaka and 13,905 in Singapore yesterday. The Bank of New York Japan ADR Index, which tracks American depositary receipts of Japanese companies, gained 1.2 percent, as the Standard & Poor's 500 Index posted its biggest jump in two weeks.

``The gain in the U.S. market relieved concern among investors, though uncertainty about the external environment still remains,'' Mitsushige Akino, who manages the equivalent of $557 million at Ichiyoshi Investment Management Co. in Tokyo, said in an interview with Bloomberg Television.

Source: Bloomberg
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Yen Declines to 11-Month Low as Japanese Buy Assets Overseas

0 comments Tuesday, June 24, 2008

June 24 (Bloomberg) -- The yen fell to an 11-month low against the euro on speculation Japanese investors will use summer bonuses to buy overseas assets offering higher yields than at home.

The currency also declined toward a four-month low against the dollar as Japanese finance companies seek to raise more than 1 trillion yen ($9.2 billion) for funds investing abroad by June 30, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The dollar was little changed against the euro as an industry survey may show U.S. consumer confidence slumped, reinforcing expectations the Federal Reserve will leave interest rates on hold tomorrow.

Source: Bloomberg

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GBPJPY analysis - Pinbar at H4?


H4 chart 5 pm Malaysia time
Caution: This is a COUNTER TREND trade

UPDATE: Stopped out at BE
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Dollar Is `Overbought' Versus Yen, May Fall to 105.61

0 comments Sunday, June 22, 2008

June 20 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar is ``overbought'' against the yen according to charts used to predict price movements, and may fall to 105.61, said George Davis, chief technical analyst at RBC Capital Markets, a unit of Canada's biggest bank.

The level of 105.61 yen is likely to provide so-called support as it is on an ascending trend line that began on March 17, according to RBC's chart. The line connects lows of 95.76 yen on March 17, 102.74 yen on May 22, 103.88 yen on June 3 and 104.43 yen on June 9, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Source: Bloomberg

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Crucial support & resistance


daily chart
expecting the price to consolidating between the 209.00 and 214.00
a break of either one of the levels will determine next market's direction
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Last week possible trades


decided to stay out of market last week due to a dismal performance for past few weeks
after some soul searching, i decided that i would only trade based on H4 price actions with a maximum risk of 150 pips
the above chart shows 5 possible trades i might take last week
the winning ratio is 4 of 5 with total net gain of 380 pips
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market in consolidation mode

1 comments Thursday, June 19, 2008

h4 chart - 6.30 am Malaysia
market in tight consolidation mode
will wait for a breakout from either one of the green lines
at 4.30 pm, GJ breaks upward and hit 212.50
a potential 90 pips gain
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Dollar Falls Most in Two Months on U.S. Jobless Rate, ECB View

0 comments Sunday, June 8, 2008

June 7 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar fell the most against the euro in two months as the U.S. unemployment rate posted its biggest increase in two decades and the European Central Bank signaled it may raise interest rates in July.

The U.S. currency weakened this week as ECB President Jean- Claude Trichet said policy makers are in a state of ``heightened alertness'' over inflation. His remarks pushed the dollar down from a four-week high touched after Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said the central bank is ``attentive'' to the implications of the weakened currency. Crude oil surged to a record.

Source: Bloomberg

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post market analysis

0 comments Saturday, June 7, 2008

here is the weekly chart at market close...
hanging man pattern...
could you guess what is my bias for the market movement next week.... ;)
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U.S. Stocks Drop After Bernanke Warns Inflation Is Fed Priority

0 comments Thursday, June 5, 2008
une 4 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks fell, sending bank shares to their lowest level in eight years, as Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke's warning that inflation is too high spurred speculation policy makers will raise interest rates.

Wachovia Corp. led 20 of 23 companies in the Standard & Poor's 500 Banks Index lower after Bernanke said price stability is the Fed's ``top priority.'' MBIA Inc. and Ambac Financial Group Inc., the world's largest bond insurers, tumbled as Moody's Investors Service said it may cut their credit ratings. Intel Corp. and Cisco Systems Inc. gained, sending the Nasdaq Composite Index to its biggest advance in a week, as an industry report showed stronger-than-forecast growth at service companies.

Source: Bloomberg
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Asian Stocks Fall for First Time in Four Days; Banks Decline

0 comments Tuesday, June 3, 2008

June 3 (Bloomberg) -- Asian stocks declined for the first time in four days, led by banks and automakers, on renewed concern credit losses will widen and slow global economic growth.

Macquarie Group Ltd., Australia's No. 1 investment bank, and Nomura Holdings Inc., Japan's biggest, dropped after Standard & Poor's cut its ratings on three of Wall Street's biggest firms and Wachovia Corp. ousted its chief executive officer. Honda Motor Co. fell after the dollar weakened against the yen, eroding the value of Japanese companies' overseas earnings. China Unicom Ltd. led a plunge among Chinese phone companies after they unveiled details of an overhaul of the industry.

``S&P's downgrades remind us the credit crunch is still lurking, and will occasionally show up to surprise the stock market,'' said Mitsushige Akino, who oversees $574 million in Japanese equities at Ichiyoshi Investment Management Co. in Tokyo.

Source: Bloomberg

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Payrolls Probably Fell for Fifth Month: U.S. Economy Preview

0 comments Monday, June 2, 2008

June 1 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. lost jobs for a fifth month in May and manufacturing contracted, signaling the economy is stagnating, economists said before reports this week.

Payrolls probably dropped by 60,000 workers, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News before the Labor Department's June 6 report. Figures tomorrow may show the Institute for Supply Management's factory index fell to 48.5 in May.

Source: Bloomberg

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