GBPJPY analysis - head and shoulder??

0 comments Friday, October 31, 2008

chart h1 - 2 pm Malysia
possible head and shoulder formation???
should price breaks 158.50, i might go short
TP 154.00

UPDATE: at 2.38 pm, 158.50 broken...
at 3.25 pm, price hit 156.15 (+220 pips gain)

Read On

GBPJPY analysis - rising wedge???

2 comments Thursday, October 30, 2008

chart h1 - 11 am Malaysia
rising wedge pattern???
usually a bearish trend continuation indication...
so be patient, bears....
we gonna have fun soon

UPDATE: 5.30 pm - price made 1st attempt to break the lower trendline...
managed to bank in 250 pips based on prior price action at 5 min chart
let's see whether bears will continue to dominate the market...
at 10.45 pm, price hit 159.29 (400 pips drop)

Read On

GBPJPY analysis - hanging man at daily chart??


daily and h1 chart - 6.45 am Malaysia
bearish hanging man at daily chart??
downwards move should be confirmed when the h1 lower trendline is broken...
stop loss should be placed slightly above yesterday high...

UPDATE: at 5.30 pm, price made 1st attempt to break the lower trendline...
let's see whther the price will continue to drop or not...

Read On

GBPJPY analysis - regular bearish divergence???


chart h1 - 1 am Malaysia
macd 5,13,1 is the only indicator that i use to gauge market sentiment...
possible regular bearish divergence..
indicates bull exhaustion...
however, fomc statement is coming up in an hour or so...
so better watch out...

more on trading divergences at babypips

UPDATE: by 2 am, price dropped 70 pips
already moved SL to +30 pips
now waiting for fomc....

Read On

GBPJPY analysis - bull trap??

0 comments Wednesday, October 29, 2008

chart h4 - 10 am Malaysia
bull camp is already shouting, "TREND REVERSAL!!!!"
well.... this chart suggests that yesterday upsurge is merely a retracement...
price is rejected by weekly 50% fibo level...
bearish harami candle indicates that the bears might come out from the woods...
let's see how the market will play it out...
Read On

GBPJPY analysis - the reason GBPJPY shot up...

+/- show/hide full post

U.S. Stocks Rally, Dow Jones Industrials Climb 889 Points

By Lynn Thomasson and Eric Martin

Oct. 28 (Bloomberg) -- Stocks rallied and the Dow Jones Industrial Average posted its second-best point gain ever as the cheapest valuations in 23 years lured investors and increased commercial paper sales signaled credit markets are thawing.

read more at Bloomberg

Read On

GBPJPY analysis - possible inverted cup and handle pattern??

2 comments Tuesday, October 28, 2008
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chart h1 - 12 am Malaysia
possible inverted cup and handle pattern??
usually a trend continuation indication...
this pattern is valid ONLY if the dotted yellow lower trendline is broken..
profit-taking target? .... the height of the cup... 1,000 pips
learn more on cup and handle pattern

UPDATE: the cup and handle pattern does not materialize...
dont worry... there are plenty of other opportunities

Read On

GBPJPY analysis - profit target for next week....

6 comments Saturday, October 25, 2008
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weekly chart - at market close
price is at previous support zones...
fibo expansion 161.8% for points ABC is 136.726
while previous weekly low is at 129.32
so the call is yours....

learn more about fibonacci from the FibMaster

Read On

GBPJPY analysis - hopefully downwards again...

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chart h1 - 2 am Malaysia
a right set-up...
a bearish candle after a spinning top
50% fibo level rejection....

UPDATE: already +60
price is choppy
stopped out at +7


Read On

GBPJPY analysis - an example of a trading plan...

3 comments Friday, October 24, 2008

h1 chart - 11 pm Malaysia
spinning top candle??
will fibo 61.8% act as a resistance??

IF and ONLY IF, next candle turns bearish...
i might go short with stop-loss sightly above the spinning top...
and my TP at 161.8% fibo level (126.50)

this is how you should plan your trade and trade your plan...

UPDATE: 12 am candle remained bullish as price tested 50% fibo level
will wait next set-up...
Read On

GBPJPY analysis - hit tp 151.50 and still going down...



what else can i say...

UPDATE: 139.03 by 5pm...
crazy beast...

Read On

GBPJPY analysis - will the tokyo low be broken??

0 comments Thursday, October 23, 2008

chart h1 - 6.45 pm Malaysia
bulls and bears are still fighting at the battlefield...
should this morning tokyo low is broken, 151.50 will be my TP...
otherwise, i'm staying out...

UPDATE: 1st breakout to 155.50 at 8.45 pm...
managed to bank in 130 pips...
lets see whether the beast will make another attempt or not
at 3 am, price hit 154.50 - potential of 350 pips gain
Read On

GBPJPY analysis - bearish flag still in play....

0 comments Wednesday, October 22, 2008

chart h1 - 11 pm Malaysia
bearish flag still in play...
confirmed shooting star formation...
the beast should start diving soon...

UPDATE: bearish flag broken by 11.30 pm
already +130 pip
at 3.30 am, price hit 158.00

[-o< <:-P \:d/
Read On

GBPJPY analysis - patiently waiting for 157.xx ...


chart h1 - 6 pm Malaysia
bearish flag pattern??? AGAIN???
should price breaks this morning low, 157.xx might be on the way...

UPDATE: at 7.15 pm, this morning low is broken...
already +90 (entry based on smaller TF set-up)
stopped at +45
will wait for next short entry
price hit 157.70 at 3.40 am

Read On

GBPJPY analysis - 134.xx in two weeks time???


daily chart
possible bearish flag pattern...
will the beast dive 3,200 pips within next two weeks???
Read On

Yen Rises to Three-Year High on Bets Central Banks to Cut Rates


By Ye Xie and Agnes Lovasz

Oct. 21 (Bloomberg) -- The yen climbed to a three-year high against the euro and gained versus the dollar on bets central banks will lower borrowing costs to limit the global economic slump, encouraging investors to sell higher-yielding assets

more at Bloomberg
Read On

GBPJPY analysis - falling three methods at h4??

0 comments Tuesday, October 21, 2008

h4 charts - 4.30 pm Malaysia
another half an hour for the current candle to close...
however, falling three methods pattern is developing....
strong trend continuation indication....
my new sell position is already +40

UPDATE: as of 7.40 pm, price has touched 171.00
potential gain of 120 pips
at 12 am, price dived to 169.00
another 200 pip gain

Read On

GBPJPY analysis - possibility of 500 pips free fall??


chart h1 - 7 am Malaysia
another bearish flag???
to be confirmed with lower trendline penetration...
possible TP: 170.xx
good luck....

UPDATE: by 2.15 pm, price penetrated the trendline
decided to banked-in 200 pips at 3.30 pm...
will wait for another set-up
price hit 169.00 at 12 am

Read On

GBPJPY analysis - bearish pennant at 15 min???

2 comments Monday, October 20, 2008

chart 15 min - 8.15 pm Malaysia
bearish pennant pattern???
should the pattern is valid and price breaks downwards....
this beast should touch 174.20 soon....

UPDATE: by 11 pm, 174.00 was hit and still dropping....
Read On

GBPJPY analysis - will the H4 trendline hold??


h4 and h1 charts - 5 pm Malaysia
price is testing the h4 trendline and daily fibo 23.6% level...
two black crows formed at h1 chart...
price still choppy at lower time frames...
still out of trade today...
next h4 candle should show next direction...

UPDATE: as of 7.15 pm, price has dropped 150 pips...
already locked some pips...
should the lower trendline is broken, price might drop furthermore...
just ride the profit...

Read On

GBPJPY analysis - evening star formation??


chart h1 - 10.45 am Malaysia
waiting for h1 candle to close....
a high possibility of evening star formation...
however, better wait for lower trendline penetration before going short...
and stop loss should be slightly above this morning high...

UPDATE: price went up - invalid set up...
still no trade yet today...
Read On

GBPJPY analysis - will the bulls keep persisting next week?

0 comments Saturday, October 18, 2008

h4 chart at market closing
price consolidates at minor S/R zones (175.xx)
my bias still remains bearish as long as price is below 181.36...
let's be patient and see how the market will play it out...
meanwhile, take care of your margin....
Read On

GBPJPY analysis - abandoned baby at h4???

0 comments Friday, October 17, 2008

chart h4 - 5.15 pm Malaysia
abandoned baby pattern...???
let's pray that beast keeps tanking...

my new sell position already in profit +60 pips
already moved SL to +ve...
closed at +20
price is really crazy...

Read On

GBPJPY analysis - uncertainty....


chart h1 - 3 pm Malaysia
still waiting for any breakout from the yellow S/R lines
and i'm still bearish-biased....

UPDATE: by 3.45 pm, price broke downwards 110 pips
already locked +20 pips
price is still choppy...
trade closed at 4:30 pm +65

Read On

GBPJPY analysis - choppy price action....


h4 & h1 charts - 1 am Malaysia
today's choppy price action is really annoying...
market moves cautiously... no clear direction yet...
however, engulfing bearish candle has appeared on h4 chart...
downwards move should only be confirmed when the lower trendline at h1 is broken...
better wait.... no need to rush...

UPDATE: at 3 am Malaysia
price went up to re-test fibo 50%(175.65)
will look for another set-up
Read On

GBPJPY analysis - 168.80 today???

0 comments Thursday, October 16, 2008

daily and h1 charts - 5.15 am Malaysia
daily charts - bottom closing marubozu; extremely bearish candle
price might retrace up to daily 50% fibo level (175.62)
today strategy: sell on rallies - possible TP 168.80 (161.8% fibo level)
Read On

GBPJPY analysis - will the support broken?


h1 chart - 12.30 am Malaysia
still waiting patiently for price to break the tough support...
otherwise, will stay out....

UPDATE: support broken at 1.30 am
let's pray it will go down to 174.00
decided to take profit at 174.50
done for the day

Read On

GBPJPY analysis - downwards journey confirmed??

2 comments Wednesday, October 15, 2008

chart h1 and 15min - 3.45 pm Malaysia
chart h1 - evening star pattern in progress
chart 15min - to go short when a full 15min candle forms below the green trendline...

UPDATE: trendline broken at 4.45 pm
tank babe tank...
+30 pips by 5 pm
moved SL to +5
now i'm safe

Read On

GBPJPY analysis - 174.xx today??


daily and h4 charts - 12 pm Malaysia
shooting star at daily charts - needs further confirmation
three black crows at h4 chart - indicates bears are in charge
will keep looking for short position entry
1st TP - 174.00 (161.8% fibo level of yesterday high low)
Read On

GBPJPY analysis - upwards retracement completed??


chart h4 - 1 am Malaysia
possible reversal bearish candle??
weekly 23.6 fibo level rejection??
if next h4 candle remains bearish, this beast should continue going down....

UPDATE: daily candle closed at 177.54
two black crows pattern has formed...
downtrend should continue...
Read On

GBPJPY analysis - consolidation mode....

0 comments Tuesday, October 14, 2008

h4 and h1 charts - 5 pm Malaysia
market is in indecision mode
conflicting signals in h4 and h1 charts
h4 chart - bearish evening doji star pattern
h1 chart - bullish flag pattern
better wait at sidelines for breakout of S/R green lines at h1....

UPDATE: price breakout on the upper S/R line at 7 pm...
might go to 185.xx
+80 pips by 7.15pm
already locked some profit
closed at +100
the price action is not "convincing"
to re-evaluate the market again
Read On

GBPJPY analysis - ermmm another intervention.....

Yen Extends Decline as Treasury Said to Invest in U.S. Banks

By Stanley White and Ye Xie

Oct. 14 (Bloomberg) -- The yen fell for a second day on speculation the U.S. Treasury will stabilize the financial system by investing $125 billion in U.S. banks, spurring investors to buy high-yielding assets funded in Japan's currency.

The yen also weakened against the Australian and New Zealand dollars, two favorites of so-called carry trades, after U.S. stocks yesterday gained the most in seven decades. European countries committed $1.8 trillion to guarantee bank loans and the Federal Reserve led efforts to flood money markets with dollars yesterday to prevent a financial system collapse.

read more here...
meanwhile, will stay out the market until the dust settles down....
Read On

GBPJPY analysis - weekly 50% level rejection???


chart h1 - 1 am Malaysia
as expected, price retraced to weekly 50% fibo (176.00)
a high-wave candle followed by a hanging man should confirmed downwards move
entered a sell position at 175.20 with tight stop-loss (176.30)
1st TP - 170.68

UPDATE: SL hit - loss 90 pips
Read On

GBPJPY anlysis - this week possible move....

0 comments Monday, October 13, 2008

monthly and h4 charts - 9 am Malaysia
monthly trendline broken - shows that bear is still in charge
however, pinbar or bullish hammer candle at daily chart indicates possible upwards retracement

confluence of weekly 50% level and monthly trendline (176.00)
as long as this resistance level are not broken, my sentiment stays BEARISH..

stay out of upwards retracement and wait for bearish continuation patterns
should last week low is broken, my next TP is 153.xx
let see how the market play it out....


p/s... a high reliable abandoned baby pattern has formed at h4 chart

UPDATE: by 10.30 am, price touched 168.56
potential 350 pips gain
Read On

GBPJPY analysis - CELEBRATION CELEBRATION - mission 167.xx completed...

7 comments Friday, October 10, 2008

hit my prediction 167.xx
see here and here
done for the week...
no more trading....
let's bowling....
<:-P <:-P <:-P
Read On

GBPJPY analysis - bearish flag in the making??


chart 15min - 6.30 am Malaysia
bearish flag??
should the pattern is valid, expect a drop of 300-400 pips soon..

learn more about flag pattern here

UPDATE: by 7.30 am, price dropped 100 pips
already locked some pips...
now i'm safe
by 8.15 am, price touched 166.55
a dive of 356 pips

Read On

GBPJPY analysis - monthly trendline broken


monthly chart
monthly trendline broken.....
two scenarios could happen:-
1. price would retrace upwards to re-test the trendline
2. price could dive to next support (148.19) by year-end
most likely, scenario # 1 would happen as the 1st breakout is usually a false one...
take note this is the MONTHLY chart...
so the scenarios could take place in a few WEEKS period..

so, watch out and trade the chart....
me??? would stay out of any retracement upwards
and wait for confirmation to load more shorts
until the chart asks me to stop...
Read On

GBPJPY analysis - trend continuation is confirmed

4 comments Thursday, October 9, 2008

chart h4 - 10.30 pm Malaysia
low reliability bearish hanging man formed at 9 pm
confirmation of down trend continuation at lower TFs...

why should we buck against the trend?

UPDATE: price made new low 169.82 at 4.15 am
what could i say more....???

Read On

GBPJPY analysis - southward again??


chart h1 - 6 pm Malaysia
bearish tweezer??
bounced off 50% daily fibo??
let get in the southward-bound train......

UPDATE: get in at 174.50
already +50 by 6.40 pm
moved SL to +5
+95 by 7.05 pm
added another sell at 173.60
2nd sell closed at +5
Read On

GBPJPY analysis - things getting scary....

0 comments Wednesday, October 8, 2008

chart h4 - 5 pm Malaysia
should Monday low is broken, we might see 166.xx soon
even beat my prediction on Aug 15th... see here
scary ek...
Read On

GBPJPY analysis - sideway...


h1 chart - 12 pm Malaysia
price in ranging mode
breakout of tokyo range will determine next direction...
as long as the price is below minor trendline, i am bearish biased...

UPDATE: 1.10 pm - tokyo low broken....
+70 pip by 1.15 pm...
already in trailing mode....

hit TP +180 pip by 1:30 pm
Read On

GBPJPY analysis - retracement completed??

2 comments Tuesday, October 7, 2008

h1 chart - 1 pm Malaysia
price upsurged due to Royal Bank of Australia rate cut
shooting star candle at confluence of resistance area and daily 38.2% fibo
will price now continue to go down??
let play it by ear...

UPDATE: by 2 pm, high reliability bearish evening star has formed
downwards move is confirmed...
let's pray Frankfurt push the baby down....
price went down 50 pips during London opening...
moved SL to +5 pips
stopped out at +5

Read On

GJ analysis - h1 flag pattern broken...

0 comments Monday, October 6, 2008

h1 chart - 10.03 pm Malaysia
my favorite pattern - flag
should dive 530 pips soon
already +350 pip within minutes....
:-O [-o<

UPDATED: unbelievable ...
+500 pips by 10.15 pm....

[-o< [-o<
Read On

GBPJPY analysis - welcome back.......

0 comments Saturday, October 4, 2008
wow... what a week.... <:-P
market really moved during the festive season
really enjoyed all the trades while celebrating Eid...
ok.. let's move to next week possible outlook... ;)
monthly chart - bearish two black crows; indicating bears are still in command
weekly chart - three inside down pattern; usually a bearish continuation indication
daily chart - bullish harami; however, any upward move should be limited to 50% monthly fibo (190.944)
furthermore, the market is not impressed with the US $700b bailout plan; read here

my strategy :
wait for the retracement to complete before going SHORT again
should the price pierced August low, we might reach 176.xx soon 

UPDATE: as of Monday 1 pm Malaysia, price dived to 180.689
around 580 pip from Friday close
already secured some pips...
let's see how low the baby will go...
Read On