Sakakibara Says Yen Could Rise to About 80 to Dollar Next Year

0 comments Thursday, December 24, 2009
Dec. 22 (Bloomberg) -- Eisuke Sakakibara, formerly Japan’s top currency official, said the yen may climb to 80 to the dollar early next year.

Japan’s governent would find it difficult to intervene effectively to weaken the yen, Sakakibara said at an event today in Tokyo hosted by Citigroup Global Markets Japan Inc.

A stronger yen, weaker stocks and deflation could cause Japan’s economy to face a double-dip recession, he said.

Sakakibara became known as “Mr. Yen” during his 1997-1999 tenure at the Ministry of Finance for his efforts to influence the yen rate through verbal and actual intervention in the currency markets.

To contact the reporter on this story: Rocky Swift in Tokyo at rswift5@bloomberg.net

Source: Bloomberg

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year end is approaching...

0 comments Sunday, December 20, 2009
Christmas will come another 5 days and soon we will be in year 2010. It's time for us to take a break as the spreads will be widen,the liquidity will get thin and price action will get erratic.

I will be watching from the sideline for the a couple of weeks and will only start trading on January 12th. Meanwhile it is interesting to see which trendline that will be broken by the beast.

Until then, HAPPY NEW YEAR and may the profit be with all of us the whole year....

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fib 50% rejection???

0 comments Friday, December 18, 2009
The broken lower trendline on the H1 chart indicates that the beast is now in southward move again.

I reentered sell position at the close of H1 candle as the price is rejected by the fib retracement 50% level. Possible target taking is at 143.50 which is at the proximity of 161.8% fib level.

In case I am wrong, my stop loss at 145.96 (33 pips risk only) should save me out of trouble.

Below is the H1 chart as of 2 am Malaysia.


UPDATE :
  • 3.35 am - +35 pips now. SL moved to BE +1
  • 10.00 am -stopped out in green; price went down to 143.73 before retracing upwards)

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trendline rejection???

0 comments Thursday, December 17, 2009
Looks like the price is rejected by the daily major trendline. Decided to take a calculated risk by going short again at the close of H4 candle.

Stop loss is placed 10 pips above the swing high - a risk of 66 pips. 1st target is at the immediate bottom trendline; approximately at 144.00.

Below is the H4 chart as of 10 am Malaysia.

UPDATE: After moving like a drunken sailor for a few hours, the beast dropped to 145.00. Now my post is on free ride as the stop loss is already moved to BE +30.


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evening star??

0 comments Wednesday, December 16, 2009
An evening star pattern appears on the H4 chart. Could the bears start coming in now?

Stop loss ia placed 20 pips above previous swing high (146.08) with a risk of 70 pips. Profit taking target is 150 pips.

Below is the H4 chart as of 10 am Malaysia.


UPDATE : 5.31 pm - stopped out with -70 pips loss
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mission 140 completed

1 comments Friday, November 27, 2009
The beast dropped 400 pips within 30 minutes this morning and hit my TP as mentioned in my earlier post. Enough trading this week.....

Below is the daily chart as of 10.20 am Malaysia.

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testing the daily lower trendline

0 comments Thursday, November 26, 2009
The beast is now approaching the daily lower trendline; a minor retracement could occur due to profit taking activities. I have closed some positions and will ride the profit with the remaining lots.

Below is the daily chart as of 5.09 pm Malaysia.

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highway 140 next???

0 comments Tuesday, November 24, 2009
The beast is now testing the last support at 146.30 area. Should this support is penetrated, the next target 140.xx should be hit in next couple days.

I have already covered my positions and now is riding the profit.

Below is the H4 chart as of 6 pm Malaysia.


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at last, the beast waken up....

0 comments Thursday, November 19, 2009
After consolidating and hibernating within a tight range, the beast seems to move again. Price has closed below the H4 lower trendline.

However, the bears need to pull the price below 148.30 to gain proper control.

Below is the H4 chart as of 10.30 am Malaysia today.




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break or hold???

0 comments Thursday, November 12, 2009
Last two weeks have been a nightmare for a swing trader like me...
Price kept ranging up and down like a teeter board. Being a die-hard bear, I kept looking for sell positions but was not able to make a big gain...

Now the price is testing the H4 lower trendline. Let see whether the price would break it or bounce from it....

Below is the H4 chart as of 6.40 am Malaysia today.


UPDATE (4 pm Malaysia)

The price has closed below the lower trendline on the hourly chart. Should the bears keep persisting, 147.0 will be my first profit taking target.








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complex head & shoulders on the weekly chart???

0 comments Sunday, November 1, 2009
A possible complex head and shoulders pattern might be developing on the weekly chart. An aggressive trader, believing that a head and shoulders top has been in formation, will begin building short positions with stop loss placed above the previous swing high of 153.3x and the 1st profit taking objective at 139.00.

Meanwhile, a conservative trader will wait for neckline at 139.00 to be broken before jumping on the bandwagon.

Extracted from Technical Analysis Of The Financial Markets (John J. Murphy)



Weekly chart as of market closing

 
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it is a war zone out there!!!!!!

0 comments Saturday, October 31, 2009
The beast is now getting difficult to be traded as it is entrapped within the converging trendlines. Neither bulls nor bears could claim control on the beast right now...

Having said that, I am still bearish biased as the price is making a lower high on the daily chart and most likely will go down to test red lower trendline.

Below is the daily chart as of market closing.

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retracement completed???

2 comments Saturday, October 24, 2009
Engulfing bearish candle on the daily chart shows that the price was rejected by the fib 50% level of the previous downwards move might signify that the bull rally might have been completed.

The price is now rests at the important psychological round number 150.00.

Daily chart as of market closing:


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will the daily resistance holds???

3 comments Thursday, October 15, 2009
The bulls went amok and the beast shot up 412 pips today. I kept aside during the crazy rally and waited for the bulls to be exhausted.

Looking onto the daily chart, the price is now bouncing off the the daily resistance and a shooting star candlestick has been formed on the hourly chart. Should the first hour of New York session drags the price lower, this might means the bull rally have reached it's temporary top; at least for the time being...

Below is the daily and hourly chart at the beginning of New York session (8 pm Malaysia).




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confirmed shooting star???

0 comments Wednesday, October 14, 2009
Once again, the price was rejected by the declining immediate trendline on the H4 chart. A confirmed shooting star formation indicates that the bears are still persistent.

Let us see whether the price could break yesterday's low or not. Below is the H4 chart as of 1 pm Malaysia.



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double bottom or descending triangle???

0 comments Tuesday, October 13, 2009
The bull camp has been yelling "double bottom!!!" since a couple days ago; however, the failure of the price to make a new high seems to develop a variance of descending triangle which is usually an indication of trend continuation.

At best; as long as the price remains within the two immediate trendlines, neither the bulls nor the bears could claim victory....

One of the important trading rules says "Always assume the underlying trend to continue unless proven otherwise." Hence, I went short at the price rejection by the upper trendline and have already covered my position. Below is the H4 chart as of 8 pm Malaysia.






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No trading today...

1 comments Monday, October 12, 2009

Banks are on holiday in both Japan dan USA. Trading volume is expected to be low and price actions could be erratic. I am going to stay out whole day today....
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bearish pennant is still intact...

6 comments Friday, October 9, 2009
Price was rejected by the confluence of the significant round number (143.00) and the top trendline of the bearish pennant. Now a bearish tweezer top formation has developed on the H4 chart and the beast should now go down to re-test the bottom trendline of the pennant.

Only time will time whether the anticipated drop to 136.xx and then 130.xx will materialised or not. Until then, trade wisely, guys......

Below is the H4 chart as 5 pm Malaysia.





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retracement due???

6 comments Thursday, October 8, 2009
A bullish hammer on the daily chart indicates that a retracement might be due; however since the overall trend is still downwards, I will stay out for the time being.

There is a possibility that the price might want to test the two upper trendlines as shown on the chart below. I will watch if the price bounces off the trendlines before going short again...

Happy trading.




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calm before the storm???

2 comments Wednesday, October 7, 2009
The inverted cup and handle that I mentioned on my previous post played out nicely as expected. The price is now stalled slightly above the lower trendline and moving within a very tight range - a sign that a big move is imminent.

Below is the hourly chart as of New York closing (5 am Malaysia)
.

Meanwhile, a bearish pennant is developing on the daily chart (see below). The chart is whispering loudly on the next direction. To know which direction that the beast will take, learn more here and here.



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inverted cup & handle???

4 comments Tuesday, October 6, 2009
An inverted cup and handle pattern might be in play on the hourly chart; an indication that the beast should continue southwards.

Broken support at the lower trendline should complete the pattern and confirms the sell entry. Minimum profit taking target can be determined by measuring the height of the handle. Below is the hourly chart as of 11 am Malaysia.


UPDATE: The beast is now testing the lower support. Should the beast keep persisting, the price might dive to 136.xx soon. Below is the hourly chart as of 9.40 Malaysia.





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dull monday...

0 comments Monday, October 5, 2009
After the crazy NFP's price action last Friday, today's price movement is a dull affair. No trade today as I was waiting all day for the price to break out of the no man's land.

Until a breakout occurs, the price will be in consolidation mode within the two yellow trendlines. Below is the H4 chart as of 9.30 pm Malaysia.



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go bears go

5 comments Friday, October 2, 2009
The bears are now in charge of the market. I have been selling on rallies even though the past fews days' price actions were quite annoying.

Now I will ride the profit from the half position from the shooting star set up that I mentioned here.

Simple rules in forex trading - in a bear market, just sell the rallies... in a bull market, buy the dips.

Below is the hourly chart as of 8.10 am Malaysia. Expecting a slight bounce at 142.00 before the the beast continues downwards journey....






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bear flag???

0 comments Thursday, October 1, 2009
A bear flag formation has been completed on the H4 chart. The pole height indicates a possibility that the beast might begin it's southwards journey to 133.xx region..... scary, isn't it???

Below is the H4 chart at New York closing today (5 am Malaysia).




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shooting star??

2 comments Wednesday, September 30, 2009
A shooting star candlestick has formed on the hourly chart. I went short early based on the 15 min chart price action.

A stop is placed slightly above the swing high.... in case, I am wrong. Will trail the stop once the post is in green.

Below is the hourly chart as of 9 am Malaysia.


UPDATE: The beast keeps ranging with neither bulls nor bears are really in control. However, the bears camp has the slight advantage now as the bearish flag has been broken...

I managed to take partial profits and will break even should the stop-loss is hit on the remaining lot. Below is the hourly chart at 3 am Malaysia (17 hours later!!!!)

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southwards again??

0 comments Tuesday, September 29, 2009
Since the trend is down, I stayed out during the 300 pip upwards move and patiently wait for the bulls exhaustion.

I went short when the price broke the ascending wedge slightly before London opening; and now already in green.....

Below is the hourly chart at 3 pm Malaysia.


UPDATE: Price managed to drop about 90 pips before good CBI Realized Sales data at 5.30 pm pushed the beast up...


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143.00 on the way???

0 comments Friday, September 25, 2009
The beast has now closed slightly below the previous support and made a new low. A slight retracement upwards is due at lower TFs; however, the market sentiment is now favors the bears' camp and the pair should touch 143.00 soon.

I have already covered my profit and will accept whatever the market gives..... Below is the daily chart at the New York closing with some insight on the future moves (which might be wrong... LOL)

UPDATE: The market closed at 142.96. A new low was made at 142.73....



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will the support be broken??

0 comments Thursday, September 24, 2009
The double top pattern that was mentioned on my previous post is now developing nicely. As of the beginning of New York session today, the beast has already penetrated the previous support at 146.74.

The price still need to CLOSE below the support significantly before the bears could claim full control. Remember.... a pattern is NOT a pattern until it is completed.

Below is the daily chart as of 8 pm Malaysia today.

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possible double top???

4 comments Friday, September 18, 2009
A possible double top pattern is developing on the daily chart. This pattern should be validated if the support at 149.7x is broken significantly.

Even though a slight pullback is possible, I am anticipating that the beast will dive to 136.xx area within a couple weeks.

Let's see how the beast play it out.....



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traveling....

0 comments Wednesday, July 29, 2009
Some personal commitments tied me up from updating this blog during the past couple weeks. I had also switched to long term trading as I am not able to stay in front of computer as before. Furthermore, this evening I have to travel for more than a month and might not be able to look to the screen for days.....

However, a bearish candle should formed on the monthly chart which might indicate that the bullish rally from the start of the year is merely a correction; and the beast should resume the southwards journey.

Hopefully I will be back in October 2009. Till then, take care and trade wisely....













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bearish flag???

0 comments Friday, July 10, 2009

A lower high on the H4 chart has developed a bearish flag pattern ; a possible indication that the train might continue south-bound journey.

The beast needs to penetrate the previous low, in order to reach 143.xx. Meanwhile, my strategy of selling on rallies worked out well so far and all profits have been protected.

Below is the H4 chart as of 9 pm Malaysia.

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daily TL broken???

0 comments Wednesday, July 8, 2009
The price has broken below the lower daily trendline and now consolidating at the previous support cluster area.

The beast might retrace upwards as the sellers took their partial profits. However, the general sentiment has turned bearish for the pair.

My medium term strategy is to start selling on rallies with the profit taking target at next support (143.xx).

Below is the daily chart as of 5 pm Malaysia.



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bearish harami???

0 comments Tuesday, July 7, 2009
A bearish harami has appeared on the H4 chart; indicating the possibility that the retracement might have been completed. Went short again at the close of the H4 candle. Stop loss placed at 155.60 (29 pips above swing high) and profit taking will be at 151.00 (slightly above 161.8% fib level of yesterday's low).

Below is the H4 chart as of 9 am Malaysia.






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testing the daily trendline

0 comments Monday, July 6, 2009

The beast has broken the H4 trendline significantly and now testing the the daily trendline. Price might rebounce slightly from the trendline, however, the overall sentiment looks bearish.

A valid peneration below the daily trendline could signals that the beginning of downward trend. Let see how market plays it out....

Below is the H4 chart as of 5 pm Malaysia

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H4 trendline broken???

0 comments Friday, July 3, 2009

The price has penetrated the H4 lower trendline; indicating that the beast has reached a temporary top, at least for the time being.

Downward trend reversal should only be confirmed when the daily lower trendline (around 153.5) is pierced significantly.

Below is the H4 chart as of 9 am Malaysia.

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still ranging......

0 comments

Virus attack on my notebook kept me away from chart these few days. Had to trade from a nearby cyber cafe.

Meanwhile, the price keep ranging; even though there are signs of bull exhaustion as the price keep making lower highs, there is still no confirmation that the bears has gained control of the market.

Short trading week (as the NY market will be closed tomorrow) might be the reason the market is moving cautiously.

However, next week should see a clearer market direction when the price breaks out from either trendlines shown below.

H4 chart as of 1 am Malaysia.

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directionless??

0 comments Friday, June 26, 2009

The beast is currently wandering aimlessly as the price is coiling within the two converging trendlines and developing a symmetrical triangle, indicating that neither the bulls nor the bears are in control.

The next major direction could only be determined after a valid breakout. As long as the price stays within the symmetrical triangle, it is advisable to stay out from market.

Below is the hourly chart as of 2 pm Malaysia.

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156.50 support broken??

0 comments Thursday, June 25, 2009
A bearish engulfing candle on the h4 chart indicates that the bears are starting to gain control on the market. I was reluctant to go in early as the price action was choppy all day long, and a confirmation is still needed to ensure that the bears are in total control.

Now the price has pierced below the support at 156.50, which was the crucial level that I monitored. Let's pray the beast keep drifting downwards.

Below is the H4 chart as of 8.30 pm Malaysia.

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High wave candle II

0 comments Wednesday, June 24, 2009
The market is still in the sideway mode as the price keep ranging within the hi-lo of the high wave candle. Price still failed to break the high wave candle's high and now developing a possible bearish engulfing candle. Take note the price was also rejected by the descending trendline.

In normal situation, the sellers would be watching the 157.00 resistance level closely before entering the market. However, it might be better to stay aside as the FOMC data is coming up at 2.15 am.

Below is the H4 chart as of 11 pm Malaysia (take note that the latest candle will be closed in the next 2 hours).



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High wave candle??

0 comments

A high wave candle on the H4 chart indicates that the market is in indecision mode right now. The buyers are hesitating to push the price up, meanwhile the sellers are still waiting for confirmation to jump on the bandwagon.

Should the price goes below 157.00, the sellers might start entering the market. and push the beast down. Let's how the market plays it out.

Below is the H4 chart as of 5 pm Malaysia.

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Will the neckline be broken???

1 comments Tuesday, June 23, 2009
A bearish candle on the daily chart indicates that the much anticipated head and shoulder formation is still in play and currently is in the progress of completing the right shoulder.

However, the beast needs to penetrate the neckline at 155.00, in order to ensure that the bulls have given up to push the price further up and the bears are completely in control of the market.

The next cluster of support is at 151.00 region. See the daily chart below.




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156.00 soon??

0 comments Monday, June 22, 2009

The price is already penetrated below the Friday's low (157.38). Should the bears keep persisting, the price might hit fib 161.8% level (156.00).

Below is the 15min chart as of 9 pm Malaysia.



UPDATE:
  • 10.15 pm - decided to close early due to bullish engulfing candle on the 15 min chart
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EU - descending triangle???

0 comments

Bored with GJ move today, I eye-balled EU chart and noticed the pair is making a series of lower highs and developing a bearish descending triangle pattern on the H4 chart.

Should the price breaks the support at 1.3740, this might signify a 600 pips downwards to 1.31xx. Let see latter whether this pattern holds or not.

Below is the H4 chart as of 5 pm Malaysia.





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