GBPJPY analysis - a throwback move?

0 comments Saturday, February 28, 2009

chart h4 at the market closing...

Compare the above chart with the chart below.

I am still holding my sell positions over the weekend as I believe the beast is now making a "throwback" move toward the neckline; which is at the proximity of 135.20. defines a throwback move as following:
This situation occurs when the price breaks through the neckline, setting a new high or low (depending on the pattern), followed by a retreat back to the neckline. This move back to the neckline is considered to be a test of the pattern and the newly reversed support or resistance.

Read more about the throwback move here.

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GBPJPY analysis - bearish hanging man at h4???

0 comments Friday, February 27, 2009

chart h4 - 6 am Malaysia

Price failed to break previous high. Went short at 140.98 due to bearish hanging man candle. Stop loss is at 141.98 (100 pips risk).
12.50 pm - +140; SL rest at +50
2.50 pm - price is now below the h1 lower trendline
now watching whether price could breaks 138.50 or not
will add another sell position if 138.50 is broken...
see the hourly chart below

4.35 pm - sell stop at 138.50 hit; now -45
let's see what will happen
5.05 pm - 2nd sell position is now +40..
might add another sell post at 137.50 if Wednesday's low
is broken :-?
9.20 pm - Wednesday's low broken <:-P
will the beast dive to 135??? :-?
9.30 pm - the price went down 70 pips before the bulls came in #:-S

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GBPJPY analysis - another bearish day??

0 comments Thursday, February 26, 2009

chart h1 - 6 am Malaysia

A bearish dark cloud cover candle has formed on the the daily chart.

Today I will be watching closely on the fib 50% level. Should the price rebounds from it, I will place a sell order targeting 137.66 and 136.10; which are the yesterday's low and fib 132.8% level respectively.

Good luck and happy trading... :D
9.30 am - price hit fib 50% level
went short at 139.70; stop loss at 139.91 (21 pips risk)
let's see whether the beast agrees with me or not...

9.47 am - chickened out at +2 =))
9.55 am - re-sell again at 139.66
this time, stop loss placed at 140.06 (40 pips risk):">
10.30 am - closed at +7
choppy price action :(
1.22 pm - went short at 139.20 due to an insider bar setup at 30 min
SL 139.75 (55 pips risk)

3.40 pm - decided to close at +35
price action is still choppy...

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GBPJPY analysis - could the bulls break weekly 161.8% fib??

0 comments Wednesday, February 25, 2009

h4 chart as of 8 am Malaysia

Yesterday price action seems to indicate that the bulls might need some rest right now. :-?

A quick look at weekly fib levels shows that the price is struggling to break 161.8% level. Should the beast decides to move down, there is a possibility that it might want to re-test the broken neckline again...
1.30 pm - will be away from chart today...
place a sell stop order at 140.44
stop-loss will be at 141.59 (115 pips risk)
wish me luck, guys... :D

10.00 pm - my sell stop was hit and now +110 [-o<
move SL to +30
11.08 pm - +260 [-o<
will ride the profit
11.51 pm - close half position at +195
the other half rest at +100
done for the day

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GBPJPY analysis - will the bulls keep persisting??


chart h1 - 12.00 am Malaysia

The outlooks remains bullish at the moment as the price keeps lingering above yesterday high. Decided to go long at 139.62 with target projection of 142.40.

If I am wrong, my stop loss at 135.53 (a risk of 109 pips) will save me. :-ss
1.15 am - -85 pips :-s
let's pray stop loss will not be hit [-o<
2.30 am - +2 pips....#:-S
let's see whether the beast will shoot up or not...
2.41 am - +40; SL rest at +1 [-o<
2.49 am - stopped out at +1...
re-entered long again at 139.80 :-"
3.07 am - closed at +31
3.17 am - re-opened another buy 140.44
scalped +18 pips

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GBPJPY analysis - rising three method???

2 comments Tuesday, February 24, 2009

chart 15 min - 11.11 am Malaysia

Went long at 137.98; stop loss at 137.44 (54 pips risk)
  1. a variance of rising three method; or should I called it "rising five method"? :))
  2. another inside bar set up....
Should yesterday's high is broken, my target projection will be 141.16 (fib 132.8) and 142.42 (fib 161.8). Let's see how market play it out... B-)
11.52 pm - +45 [-o<
SL rest at +1
12.30 pm - decided to close at +50
a bearish doji has appeared on the 15 min chart
take a short rest..

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GBPJPY analysis - retracement completed???


chart 30 min - 9.07 am Malaysia

Went long at 136.76; stop loss at 136.14 (62 pips risk). Reasons:
  1. a inside bar set up
  2. rejection by 50% fib level
  3. price breaks the immediate trendline.
Possible TP: yesterday high 139.12
9.22 am - +74 [-o<
SL rest at +10
9.37 am - closed at +88
have to attend some personal matters

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GBPJPY analysis - bears, better watch out...

2 comments Monday, February 23, 2009

chart h1 - 3 pm Malaysia

An inside bar set up on the hourly chart. Went long at 135.30 with stop-loss placed at 134.57 (73 pips risk).

Should the price breaks the upper trendline, I anticipate that the beast might begin a upward move to next resistance which coincides with 140.xx zone.

Will move the stop-loss to +1 once the profit hit +50.
4.25 pm - +44; SL rest at +1
7.05 pm - closed at 138.37 [-o<
done for the day...
by the way, if you read here carefully, the price might hit 155.xx
sooner or later...
don't tell anyone ok? :-$ ;)

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GBPJPY analysis -symmetrical or ascending triangle???

3 comments Saturday, February 21, 2009

daily chart at the market closing

Is it a symmetrical or an ascending triangle? :-? Whatever it is, the market is telling us that neither the bulls nor bears are in control.

Useful tips from Informed Trades regarding the ascending triangle pattern:
  • While the shape of the triangle is significant, of more importance is the direction that the market moves when it breaks out of the triangle.
  • While you normally will see this pattern form in an uptrend; if you do see it in a downtrend, it should be paid attention to as it can act as a powerful reversal signal.
Meanwhile, below is what babypips says:
  • Many charting books will tell you that in most cases, the buyers will win this battle and the price will break out past the resistance. However, it has been my experience that this is not always the case.
Still confused? Why not we go fishing again until the beast shows us the REAL direction.... :))

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GBPJPY analysis - bullish dragonfly on h4???

0 comments Friday, February 20, 2009

chart h4 - 6 pm Malaysia

Good UK retail sales result pushed the beast upwards. A bullish dragonfly doji has formed on the h4 chart.

Went long at the close of h4 candle (134.17). Risking 151 pip as the stop loss is placed at 132.66 (10 pips below swing low).

Most likely the price will test the neckline again.. :-?
8.30 pm - decided to close at +80 [-o<

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GBPJPY analysis - will today be a bearish day??


chart h1 - 6.47 am Malaysia

An inside bar set up on the hourly chart. Price has pierced the trigger bar's low. I went short earlier at 134.68 due to the broken lower trendline.

Stop loss is placed at 135.30 (a risk of 62 pips). No target projection yet. Will trail the stop loss manually.
7.53 am - +50 [-o<
8.09 am - closed at +35...:D
8.45 am - another inside bar set up on the 30 min chart
placed a sell stop order at 133.90
stop loss at 134.59 (69 pips risk)
possible target projection - yesterday's low (132.88)
let's how market play it out...

12.13 pm - dull price action ~x(
decided to close at +7
4.15 pm - price hit yesterday's low
missed a potential 90 pip gain...:))

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GBPJPY analysis - beginning of UPTREND???

0 comments Thursday, February 19, 2009

chart h4 - 10 pm Malaysia

Neckline broken?? Has the trend reversed?? Let us see... :d

see my earlier post here on the possible head and shoulder pattern on the daily chart.

11.00 pm - bears are still alive =))
managed to close the long position +85 pip [-o<
now looks like the bulls are now retreating.... :D

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GBPJPY analysis - ascending wedge in play??


chart 30 min - 12.30 pm Malaysia

An ascending wedge is forming on the 30 min chart. Went short at 133.52 as the lower trendline was pierced. Stop loss placed at 133.93 (41 pips risks).
1.16 pm - +45; SL rest at +1 [-o<
2.11 pm - closed at +28

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GBPJPY analysis - double tops at h1?

0 comments Wednesday, February 18, 2009

chart h1 -5 pm Malaysia

A double tops formation in play?? Went short at the close of the hourly candle. Stop loss is at 132.22 (10 pips above the neckline - 26 pips risks).

Let's pray this time the bulls are really exhausted... [-o<

courtesy of babypips
5.57 pm - the price went down 50 pip and went up again
stopped out at +1 ~x(
might as well shut off the chart
and continue fishing :))

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GBPJPY analysis - bearish engulfing at h1???


chart h1 - 6 am Malaysia

An engulfing bearish candle had appeared on the hourly chart. Price failed to make a clean break of the yellow immediate trendline. In addition, the price was rejected by the weekly fib 50% level.

Decided to go short at 131.62 with stop-loss placed at 132.41 (79 pips risk).
Target: Not decided yet.

Let's see how the market will play it out... :-ss
8.45 am - another very, very slow day
+25; SL rest at +1
9.28 am - stopped out at +1 b-)
should we go fishing today?

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GBPJPY analysis - still ranging....

0 comments Tuesday, February 17, 2009

chart 30 min - 5.13 pm Malaysia

The beast keep ranging as GU and UJ move in opposite direction today.
Realized a inside bar set up on the 30 min chart.
Decided to sell at 129.93 with a risk of 71 pip risk (SL at 130.64)
Now +17; will move SL to +1 once in gain of +30.
5.34 pm - stopped out at -71 pip
good UK CPI result pushed the beast up =))

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GBPJPY analysis - dull Tokyo session...

0 comments Monday, February 16, 2009

chart 30 min - 10.30 am Malaysia

Dull Tokyo session (:| I-); price keeps moving directionlessly within market open range
US banks are also closed tonight... :(
Will European session bring some life to the market? :-?
7.15 pm - went asleep just now :))
saw an inside bar set up at 15 min...
+9 now... too slow a move :(

8.22 pm - erratic price action
chickened out at +4 #:-S

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GBPJPY analysis - next week set-up made easy...

0 comments Saturday, February 14, 2009

Daily chart at market closing

Next week trading couldn't be easier... :-B
just be patient and wait until the price breaks either of the trendlines B-)

Now, go and enjoy your weekend :-"

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GBPJPY analysis - I don't like what I see....

0 comments Friday, February 13, 2009

daily chart - 6 am Malaysia

A bullish hammer has formed on the daily chart. Meanwhile, three white soldiers are already marching on the h4 chart.

On larger overview, there is a possibility that an inverse head and shoulder pattern is in play. The key level to be watched closely is 131.00 area.

Should the price breaks 131.00 resistance zone, then the bears are in danger. And the trend reversal to UPTREND should begin with the penetration of the neckline at 136.00-137.00 zone. :-ss
3.30 pm - 131.00 penetrated...
the bulls are in control...
5.20 pm - price is at 132.65
290 pips upward move from today open

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GBPJPY analysis - will the beast moves downwards again??

0 comments Thursday, February 12, 2009

chart h1 - 4.03 pm Malaysia

Went short as soon as the price pierces the lower trendline. Stop loss placed at 130.00 (risking 88 pips). Target projected: still undecided.

Will the beast continue going downwards? :-?
4.20 pm - price is testing yesterday's low ...
+45; SL rest at +1 [-o<
4.37 pm - +100 ; SL rest at +30
4.55 pm - took half position at +150
hopefully the beast will touch the next
support at 125.3x, at least... [-o<

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GBPJPY analysis - isn't that inside bar beautiful??


chart 30 min - 7.15 am Malaysia

Isn't that insider bar beautiful??
Missed the set up as I just opened up the chart...
Will wait next set up.... :d

Download MT4 inside bar indicator here.

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GBPJPY analysis - sweeeeet pinbar

0 comments Wednesday, February 11, 2009

chart 15 min -6.45 pm Malaysia

Went short as soon as the pinbar completed. Risked 50 pips SL initially.
15 minute later, already +99 [-o<

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GBPJPY analysis - bears are back??


chart h1 - 6 am Malaysia

An evening star formation has appeared on the daily chart; usually a high reliability indication that the bears are taking over the market.

On the hourly chart, the price has already pierced the lower trendline. However, the price would normally tends to pull back and test the broken trendline.

As long as the trendline holds, there might be a possibility that the price will continue downwards move. Today fibs 138.2% and 161.8% levels are at 128.03 and 126.61 respectively.
5.00 pm - price is already breaks yesterday low
a bearish flag is in progress on the hourly chart
will the beast drop further? :-?
UK Claimant Count Change result will be out at 5.30pm :-ss

5.45 pm - good UK Claimant Count Change result
decided to close my sell and take a rest first :d

Read On

GBPJPY analysis - sell entry TP: 132.00

0 comments Tuesday, February 10, 2009

chart h1 - 9.48 pm Malaysia

Another inside bar set up. Price is below the immediate trendline.

Went short at 134.66. TP 132.00 (the nearest round number to fibo 138.2 level).
In case I am wrong, my SL at 135.58 (92 pips risk) will save me. :-ss

11.20 pm - closed at +20
market looks direction less :(
12.15 pm - Treasury Secretary Geithner's speech pulled the baby down..
re-sell at 133.49; +133 now [-o<
2.30 am - price is at 131.30 b-)
bears are back <:-P =D>

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GBPJPY analysis - lower trendline broken???


h1 chart - 5.01 pm Malaysia

Went short at 135.03 as soon as the price pierced the hourly lower trendline. Will it continue dropping to yesterday low?:-?
5.15 pm - +40; SL rest at +1[-o<
5.33 pm - bulls still stubborn...
took profit at +35.. :))

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GBPJPY analysis - another inside bar set up


chart 30 min as of 7.45 am

went short at 136.12
now +23, will move SL to +1 once hit +30
8.00 am - +44; SL rest at +1 [-o<
8.30 am - +82; SL rest at +15
8.39 am - close half position at +75
the other half rest at +30

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GBPJPY analysis - example of an insider bar trade set up


chart 30 min - 3.45 am Malaysia

A self explanatory example of an insider bar set up.
Please calculate the value of the stop-loss and DO NOT risk more than 5% of your equity. The lesser. the better... get the indicator here.

Otherwise, blame your own self if you're hit by MC... ~x(
A top pro trader once said....
"UNDERTRADE, UNDERTRADE, UNDERTRADE is my second piece of advice. Whatever you think your position ought to be, cut it at least in half" - Bruce Kovner

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GBPJPY analysis - 1st entry this week

0 comments Monday, February 9, 2009

h1 chart - 1.37 pm

Just opened up the charts and noticed a inside bar has formed 3 hours ago. Price is below the the immediate trendline.

Went short 10 pips below the inside bar at 134.65. Stop-loss placed at 135.30 (65 pips risk). TP will be at Friday low.

2.00 pm - +33, moved SL to +1
meanwhile an evening star has formed on h4 chart
2.35 pm - closed at +25 #:-S
4.37 pm - noticed another inside bar on 30 min chart
went long at 133.85; SL initially at 133.85
now +35; SL rest at +1

4.45 pm - chickened out at +25
crazy price action =))

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GBPJPY analysis - remember the Tuesday insider bar???

0 comments Saturday, February 7, 2009
Last Wednesday, I had noticed the inside bar on the daily chart as per my post here.

In my eagerness to keep on looking for sell entries, I failed to see the "forest for the trees". Lesson learned. :">

Below is a video on how to trade the inside bar.

Download MT4 inside bar indicator here.
Click here for another example of an inside bar set up.

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GBPJPY analysis - next week Feb 9th outlook 0 comments

h4 chart at market close

After a quick eyeballing on the daily chart, it is too early to conclude that the bulls has taken control of the market. Last week price action was quite erratic due to several important news announcements.

Now the price is now rests at 136.00 resistance zone. A break upwards should push the beast up to 141.00 region, meanwhile a bounce downwards should bring down the price to 131.00 area.

Next week trading should be an EXCITING one. Now, go and enjoy your weekend. >:)

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GBPJPY analysis - has the trend reversed??

0 comments Friday, February 6, 2009

daily chart

Bulls pushed the beast up 700 pips yesterday. A look on the daily chart reveals that the Monday bearish candle had failed to fall below the dotted trendline.

Therefore, the current market sentiment is bullish. However, has the MAJOR trend reversed??? :-?

Tonight NFP result holds the answer.... :-s

Good luck and happy trading... :D
9.55 pm - bad NFP result
the beast is still whipsawing up and down...
better wait until the dust settles down :d
better still, wait until next week :))

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GBPJPY analysis - crucial day??

0 comments Thursday, February 5, 2009

chart h1 - 1 pm Malaysia

A long-legged doji has formed on the daily chart. Once again, the market is still in uncertainty mode. Or could I say... the bulls are uncertain to push the price up. :))

However, any downward move should be confirmed by a clean penetration of the lower trendline.

Dull Tokyo session implies that the market is waiting for the following results to be released tonight.
  • BOE Official Bank Rate
  • ECB Minimum Bid Rate
  • US Unemployment Claims
On technical side, a downward break below the lower trendline (approximately at 128.30) might bring the price down to 125.xx region.

Happy pipping, guys... :D
4.00 pm - still a dull day
market is still directionless :(
6.45 pm - I saw something scary for the bears :-ss
a ascending triangle is forming on the hourly chart
should 131.00 resistance is broken, 135.00 might be
on the way..
meanwhile, I am out of trade until market shows the way...

8.10 pm - UK Official Rate down to 1.0%
my buy stop was hit at 131.00
now +26; SL rest at +1
I can't remember when was my last buy position :))
8.20 pm - chickened out at +50 =))
still feeling that this is a bull trap...:">
done for the day....

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GBPJPY analysis - inside bar on daily??

1 comments Wednesday, February 4, 2009

daily chart - 11.30 am

An inside bar on daily chart indicates that the market is currently in uncertainty. Neither bulls nor bears are in control.

That also means that today is a NO TRADE day. =))
Will come back tomorrow...
Till then, cheers ... :-h
3.15 pm - congrats to those who get in the bear run... :-O
3.30 pm - should the lower trendline at 127.30 broken,
125.00 might be on the way...

Read On

GBPJPY analysis - waiting for confirmation...

0 comments Tuesday, February 3, 2009

h1 chart 11.45 pm Malaysia

A engulfing bearish candle has formed on the daily chart. Meanwhile, the hourly chart shows the retracement is not over yet.

Downwards trend should continue once the 126.00 level is broken....
3.00 pm - still waiting patiencely... :-w
"This market will be here long after you and I will
be dead, so there is no need to rush in..." -Jacko
8.30 pm - was away from chart for 5 hours
and nothing changes =))
market is in sideway mode

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GBPJPY analysis - 126.69 next??

2 comments Monday, February 2, 2009

chart h1 - 8.00 am Malaysia

Looks like the bears are gaining control on the beast. Should the price breaks the lower trendline, 1st target projection is Friday low (126.69).
4.00 pm - Frankfurt market pulled the price down to 127.63
the lower trendline is now pierced. [-o<
4.51 pm - Friday's low hit [-o<
125.10 and 124.10 might be hit next
8.00 pm - 126.00 broken?
will the beast dive further down? :-?
10.00 pm - closed all positions at 126.40
a pinbar on h4 chart indicates a retracement is due

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