Daily GJ Technical Analysis

chart h1 4:45 pm Malaysia
a breakout could occur either way.....

h4 chart - 6 pm Malaysia
price breakout to the the south...
already locked a few pips and set trailing stop by 50 pips...
UPDATE:
took 35 pip gain as ADP Nonfarm Employment Change is approaching at 8.15 pm

15 min chart 9.45 pm Malaysia

a dull trading day....
a breakout below 214.00 might signals price reversal...
US consumers' sentiment result might provide next direction..

daily chart
rising wedge pattern??
as long as the upper trendline is intact - i believe the bears will come out from the woods soon......



h4 chart at 1 pm Malaysia
bearish candle
possible downward move to 50% fibo level...
UPDATE: price went to 213.68 (took profit at 60 pips)

July 24 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks tumbled, sending financial shares to their worst drop in eight years, after home sales slid more than forecast and investor Bill Gross predicted the housing slump will cost banks and brokerages $1 trillion.

Citigroup Inc., Bank of America Corp. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. retreated and shares of builders posted their biggest decline ever as a report showed sales of previously owned homes fell to the lowest level in a decade. Ford Motor Co., the world's third-largest carmaker, plunged the most since August 2000 after reporting a loss twice as big as analysts estimated.

``I would feel very uncomfortable for the average investor to get too aggressive in financials,'' said Stephen Wood, who helps manage $213 billion as a senior portfolio strategist at Russell Investments in New York. The recovery in the housing market ``isn't going to be coming any time soon.''

Source: Bloomberg

daily chart - 5 am Malaysia
price bounced off upper trendline
engulfing bearish candle
possible retractment to 50% fibo level (214.30)
before continuing downward journey to 210.90 (161.8% fibo)
UPDATE: at 7 pm, price touched 214.40.....
will wait for confirmation on next move

went short after price broke the lower trendline..
already locked some profit and let it ride...
UPDATE: decided to take quick 60 pip profit..
will wait for next signal

h1 chart - 5 pm Malaysia time
ascending wedge in formation??
will bear take over afterwards??
better wait for confirmation breakout
UPDATE:
price broke upwards during frankfurt open
believed that the UK rate news leaked early

H4 chart - 9 am Malaysia time
bearish candle
possible retracement to 210.90 (weekly 50% fibo)
SL: 213.944 (100 pips risk)
UPDATE: at 4.30 price went down to 212.20 (65 pips gain)
decided to bail out at 30 pips

July 18 (Bloomberg) -- The Bank of Japan weighs the risks that the economy may slow with the risk that inflation will accelerate equally when formulating policy, Governor Masaaki Shirakawa said.

``We don't have any pre-set direction for policy and must carefully examine both upside and downside risks,'' Shirakawa said at a business meeting in Tokyo today. ``If asked about a numerical-weight allocation, I would say that it is fifty-fifty'' growth to inflation, he said.

Shirakawa's comments contrast with some board members, according to minutes for the June 12-13 meeting published today. At last month's meeting, some members said the bank should focus more on the risk that economic growth will slow rather than the risk that inflation will accelerate.

``Shirakawa wants to emphasize the Bank of Japan's stance that policy is neutral,'' said Hiroshi Shiraishi, an economist at Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. in Tokyo. ``The central bank will stay on hold with little risk of secondary inflation and with the outlook for growth returning to a moderate path.''

The central bank this week lowered its economic growth forecast, raised its inflation estimate and said the economy is slowing further as higher commodity prices hurt the expansion.

The governor today said rapid gains in fuel and commodity prices are crimping capital investment, eroding household incomes and hurting consumption. Still, the central bank expects that Japan's economy will return to a recovery path and can avoid ``a deep adjustment,'' Shirakawa said.

Source: Bloomberg

h4 chart - 9 am Malaysia
bearish harami candle??
possibility of retracement to 210.80 (WEEKLY fibo 50% level)??
UPDATE:
price retraced to 211.60 (DAILY fibo 50% level)
potential 80 pips gains

h4 chart 3.30 pm Malaysia
price has broken H4 minor trendline
currently approaching yesterday low
if yesterday low is penetrated, 207.00 is a possibility
UPDATE:
price went down to 207.97 (80 pips gain potential)

July 15 (Bloomberg) -- The yen may rise as high as 100 per dollar this year as the Bank of Japan is more likely to raise interest rates than the Federal Reserve, said Toyoo Gyohten, former currency-policy chief at Japan's Ministry of Finance.

The Bank of Japan, which ends its monthly policy meeting today, may lift borrowing costs should inflation accelerate and the economy sustain growth of at least 1 percent, Gyohten said. Futures traders have ruled out the chance of a Fed increase next month following a collapse in the share prices of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the biggest U.S. mortgage finance companies.

Source: Bloomberg

July 15 (Bloomberg) -- Japanese stock futures fell in the U.S. on concern banks there will collapse amid mounting credit market losses and after a report Japan's top three lenders hold more than $40 billion in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac debt.

U.S.-traded receipts of Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc., the country's biggest lender by value, lost 2.4 percent from the closing share price in Tokyo yesterday. Those of Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc., the second largest, tumbled 2.3 percent.

U.S. financial shares posted their steepest slide in eight years, and Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac slumped in spite of a rescue plan from the Treasury Department. The Nikkei newspaper said today Japan's three largest lenders hold 4.7 trillion yen ($44.2 billion) in debt securities of the mortgage lenders.

Source: Bloomberg

July 14 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks fell, sending financial shares to their lowest level since October 1998, on heightened concern that bank failures will spread.

Washington Mutual Inc. posted its biggest drop ever and National City Corp. tumbled to a 24-year low after last week's collapse of IndyMac Bancorp Inc. spurred speculation that regional banks are short of capital. The companies said they've seen no unusual depositor activity. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac erased an earlier rally fueled by Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson's plan to help rescue the largest U.S. mortgage lenders.

Source: Bloomberg

weekly chart
price still failed to break previous resistance levels (see yellow circles)
and remains in consolidation mode
212.30 and 209.80 become critical resistance and support levels in smaller TFs
candle patterns indicate diminishing bull strength
however, breakout on the downside is still required for trend reversal confirmation
once confirmed, price might retrace to 203.20 (fibo 50% level)

July 12 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks fell for a sixth week, sending the Standard & Poor's 500 Index into a bear market, as fuel prices climbed to records and investors speculated Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac won't survive the mortgage crisis.

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the government-chartered companies that are the largest source of financing for U.S. home mortgages, tumbled to 17-year lows. They led the S&P 500 to a 20 percent drop from its Oct. 9 record, marking a bear market for the benchmark equity gauge. The Dow Jones Industrial Average entered a bear market a week earlier.

Source: Bloomberg

July 10 (Bloomberg) -- Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the two biggest providers of financing for U.S. home loans, fell to the lowest levels in 17 years in New York trading after a former Federal Reserve president said the companies may need a government rescue.

Fannie Mae tumbled as much as 24 percent and Freddie Mac slumped as much as 34 percent in New York Stock Exchange composite trading after UBS AG analysts said in a report today that Freddie Mac's decline creates ``challenges'' for the company's plan to raise $5.5 billion.

Chances are increasing that the U.S. will bail out Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac because they don't have enough capital to weather the worst housing slump since the Great Depression, former St. Louis Federal Reserve President William Poole said in an interview. Freddie Mac owed $5.2 billion more than its assets were worth in the first quarter, making it insolvent under fair value accounting rules. The fair value of Fannie Mae assets fell 66 percent to $12.2 billion, data provided by the Washington- based company show, and may be negative next quarter, Poole said.

Source: Bloomberg

July 10 (Bloomberg) -- Asian stocks fell, led by banks and technology companies, on concern continued turmoil in financial markets and a slowdown in the U.S. economy will erode earnings.

Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. and Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc. declined, following a slump in U.S. financial shares on concern the largest mortgage finance companies may not weather the housing slump. Advantest Corp., the world's biggest maker of memory-chip testers, fell after Merrill Lynch & Co. said slowing demand will hurt Intel Corp.'s earnings.

Source: Bloomberg

15 min chart 9 am (Malaysia)
rising wedge is forming??
normally it is a bearish formation
UPDATE: price went down to 211.00
potential 50 pips gain

July 7 (Bloomberg) -- The pound fell against the dollar and the euro and bonds rose after a government report showed U.K. manufacturing contracted more than predicted in May, deepening concern the economy will tip into a recession.

The U.K. currency slipped to its lowest level versus the dollar in almost two weeks as investors scaled back bets the Bank of England will boost interest rates when it meets July 10. The Office for National Statistics said today output declined 0.5 percent in May from April. The median forecast of 22 economists surveyed by Bloomberg predicted no change. Two-year gilts rose to the highest level in more than a month.

Source: Bloomberg

July 7 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks fell, erasing a 111-point rally in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, as growing concern over Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae sparked a decline in financial companies that overshadowed an almost $4-a-barrel drop in oil.

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the largest U.S. providers of home-mortgage financing, tumbled to the lowest levels in more than 13 years on speculation they will be forced to raise more capital. JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Bank of America Corp. slid, dragging the S&P 500 Financials Index to a five-year low. Yahoo! Inc. led gains in technology shares that limited the market's retreat after Microsoft Corp. said it may revive talks to take over the operator of the most-visited U.S. Web site.

Source: Bloomberg

let us zoom down to h4 chart

chart h1 10.30 am (Malaysia)
price has penetrated lower trendline
UPDATE: SL hit