descending triangle???

0 comments Saturday, January 30, 2010
The beast is now seems to be confined within a large descending triangle on the daily chart. Next crucial support to be watched is at the 142.7 region; where the bulls might come in again to push the price to 147.00 area.

Should that happen, I will stay out of market until next confirmation to go short again. Keep it simple - in bear market, sell the rallies; in bull market, buy the dips...

Below is the daily chart as at market close this week. Good luck and happy pipping... Enjoy your weekend...




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on the way to 143.00???

0 comments Friday, January 22, 2010
One of my favorite pattern; a classic bearish flag pattern; had formed on the hourly chart. This pattern is usually a strong indication that more sellers will jump on the bandwagon and pull the beast downwards.

The pole height of 280 pips should be a reasonable target projection for those who sell on the break of the flag, Let us see whether the beast could hit 143,00 or not.

Below is the hourly chart as of 9.30 am Malaysia.






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Could this be the trade of the year???

0 comments Sunday, January 17, 2010
Next week will be a very interesting as the price is now testing the lower trendline on the weekly chart. The two consecutive bearish candles might provide the early warning that the sellers are building up momentum slowly to pull the beast down.

Should the selling pressure builds up, the next support at 140 region could be tested; where some resistance from the bulls camp could be expected and and a BIG and FIERCE battle could be anticipated there.

In order for the bears to win the battle, this crucial level at 139.50 must be broken significantly. Let's see who will win the battle...

Below is the weekly chart as of this weekend.











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bearish outside bar??

0 comments Friday, January 15, 2010
The price action keeps on moving erratically along the H4 lower trendline as the bulls and bears are fighting hard to gain control of the market. The only way to trade this kind of market is to have reasonable stoploss with acceptable risk.

The bears right now have a slight advantage as a bearish outside bar has formed on the H4 chart and closed slightly below the lower trendline. However, the bears need to pull the beast below 145.00 in order to win the battle.

Below is the H4 chart as of 10 am Malaysia.


UPDATE:

1 am (15 hours later) - the hourly candle had closed at 147.30. Had taken partial profit along the way even though the price action actions were still erratic. Meanwhile the remaining positions are now covered with stop loss moved to breakeven.

Still expecting the price to hit 145.0 soon.




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low risk sell entry??

0 comments Thursday, January 14, 2010
On the H4 chart, the price seems to be rejected by the confluence of the two trendlines. Even though the price rejection is not yet confirmed, I decided to go short as the stoploss is only 97 pips away.

Meanwhile, the 1st profit taking objective is at the region of the previous low; therefore, the reward:risk ratio is about 2:1 which is acceptable.

Below is the H4 chart as of 6 am Malaysia.


UPDATE :
5 pm - Stoploss hit. Will stay out of market now.








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downwards to 145.4x??

2 comments Wednesday, January 13, 2010
The beast has broken the support at 147.5 region and made a lower low on the hourly chart. Profit taking activities might bring up the price to the confluence of the upper trendline, fib 50% of yesterday hi-lo range and the previous support which should now turned to resistance.

Should the price fail to go beyond 147.50, there is a possibility that the beast would further dive to fib 161.8% (145.50 region).

Let see how the market play it out. Below is the hourly chart as of 7 am Malaysia.




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sell again at 147.50

0 comments Wednesday, January 6, 2010
I was watching closely whether the price could penetrate the fib 50% level or not. Decided to sell at 147.50 as the price breaks the minor lower trendline on the 15min chart.

Stoploss is now moved to BE +1 and my first profit taking will be slightly above the yesterday low. Should the bears keep persisting, the next possible target is 144.30.

Below is the 15 min chart as of 9.30 pm Malaysia.

UPDATED:
10.25 pm - stopped out at +3

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bearish harami???

0 comments Tuesday, January 5, 2010
A bearish harami candle has appeared on the daily chart; indicating a possibility of bulls exhaustion.

I decided to go short at the close of the daily candle with stoploss placed 20 pips above the yesterday's high; a risk of 200 pips.

No target is set yet but will trail the profit by 100 pips manually.

Below is the daily chart as of 6 am Malaysia.

UPDATE:
12.45 pm - the beast went down to 147.84; SL moved to BE +1
3.30 pm - closed 1/3 of position at +65
10.00 pm - closed another 1/3rd at 147.00 as the price is approaching the LTL at 146.50; expecting some profit taking at that region by the sellers

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