Impact of U.S Interest Rate Hike
9 years ago
next week possible outlookSaturday, February 27, 2010As I mentioned earlier here, the falling three methods has already been confirmed on the weekly chart. This pattern is a highly reliable indication that the trend would continue downwards. However, I will stay out and wait for the price to retract upwards before adding more sell positions. Looking at the H4 chart, I would say that the beast would retrace up to 138-139 area before going down again -maybe to 131.xx region. Remember the golden rule - In a bear market, SELL ALL THE RALLIES!!!! Below is the weekly and H4 chart as of this weekend.  oh when the bears go marching in....Thursday, February 25, 2010oh when the bears go marching in.... oh I love to be in the team... Should I mention the obvious? Two basic premises of chart analysis are that markets trend and that trends tend to persist. Once a trend is in place, it would take a lot of force to reverse it.
So, guys, make it simple. In a bear market, just sell all the rallies. It would make your life a lot easier and your positions will have a higher probability to be in profit. Below is the weekly chart with next possible supports that might be tested in near future. Good luck and happy trading.  falling three methods on weekly chart???Wednesday, February 24, 2010I am currently watching whether the beast could further goes down and breaks the previous low at 138.20 region. Should this week's candle closes below 138.20, a variance of falling three methods formation will be formed on the weekly chart. As this falling three methods formation is classified as a HIGH reliable continuation pattern, the possible outlook is quite scary as I do not see any significant support on the weekly chart except in the 120.xx region. Right now, I am sitting tight and will only adding more sell position once the price closes below 138.20. Below is the current weekly chart around 4.30 pm Malaysia.  descending triangle???Tuesday, February 23, 2010A possible descending triangle is now developing on the hourly chart. The price keeps making lower highs meanwhile the support at 141 area is still holding for the time being. Only time will tell whether the beast could break the stubborn support and continue downwards or not. Below is the hourly chart as of 9.30 am Malaysia.  will it be the third time lucky???Monday, February 22, 2010The beast has penetrated the H4 lower trendline and now makes another attempt to test 141 support. Let's see whether the third attempt will succeed or not. A breach below 140.8x will most probably bring more sellers on the bandwagon. Below is the H4 chart as of 7 pm Malaysia (take note the current H4 candle is not closed yet).  bulls, better be careful....Friday, February 19, 2010The long awaited bear flag pattern seems now about to be confirmed on the daily chart. Unless something unexpected happens, this pattern completion will indicate a possible dive of 600 to 1,200 pips downwards. That's why I have been extremely bearish on the beast all this while. Take note of a similar pattern early September 2009. Let see how the market reacts.....  will the bears return???Thursday, February 18, 2010A lower high has been formed on the hourly chart and a few minutes ago, the beast has breached the minor support and now should be in progress to make a new lower low. This could be a signal that the bears are on the way back to the battle field after retreating for a few days. Should today's candle closes bearish, it should be an early indication that the beast has start resuming it real direction; that is DOWNWARDS!!!! Below is the hourly chart as of 3.17 pm Malaysia.  high wave candle = market is confused !!!Sunday, February 14, 2010A high wave candle has appeared on the daily chart. The small body with long wicks on both sides shows that a fierce battle between the bulls and the bears have occurred with both camps have roughly equal strengths. Candlesticker.com classify this type of candle as a reversal candle with medium reliability. Should Monday's candle turns bearish. it would serve as a confirmation that the bears are gaining the upper hand. Take note that the price has hit the 50% fib level of the last down swing; indicates that the upwards retracement might been completed. Below is the daily chart at the this weekend market's closing. Good luck and happy trading.  bearish flag in the making???Friday, February 12, 2010This week is a nightware for a trend trader like me. The choppy price actions made it difficult to hold to a position and I have a numerous positions which were stopped out at +1. Also I still holding three small sell positions which currently still in red. 140 region is really turned into a war zone as both bulls and bears refuse to throw in the towel easily yet. However, since a 650 pip pole has been formed recently. there is a possibility that the current consolidation phase is merely a bear flag formation in progress. The bears need to break 139.50 resistance level in order for the beast to further ride a roller coaster to 133 region. Below is the daily chart as of 9.20 am Malaysia.  rectangle pattern???Tuesday, February 9, 2010The beast is now in consolidation phase and forming a rectangle pattern which is usually considered as a trend continuation pattern. Most likely the price will breaks out of range in the direction of previous trend. Below is the hourly chart as 11.45 am Malaysia. Should the beast breaks downward out of the rectangle, it would constitutes a confirmation that the beast will continue it's journey southwards. Meanwhile, protective stop should be placed at 141.50; in case the pattern is invalid.  Oh... I missed that moveFriday, February 5, 2010I missed that big downward move as it happened while I was sleeping. Even though I had a few sell positions, all of them were stopped out by the trailing stops - at least, I am in green. Being a trend trader, I will wait the beast to retrace and will look for opportunity to sell at premium again - maybe around 142.xx region with 1st profit taking at 140.xx. Should that crucial support breaks, 136.xx will be my next profit taking. Will the NFP tonight favors the bears? Only time will tell. Below is the hourly chart as of 5.10 am Malaysia. 
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