Impact of U.S Interest Rate Hike
9 years ago
141.7x soon???Thursday, April 22, 2010The price is now already penetrated the minor support at 143.00 and looks the bears are gaining momentum to pull the beast downwards. The next support to be tested is yesterday's low at 142.66; once this support is broken, the price should accelerates to 141.7x. Let's see whether the market agrees or not. Below is the 30min chart as of 9.30 am.  lower high???Wednesday, April 21, 2010After gapping down 120 pip last Monday, the bulls launched a counter attack when the price hit the major daily trendline and pushed the price up to 143.5x. Even though a lower high appears to be forming on the H4 chart, it is too early to determine the real direction as the price is still in sideway mode.Thus, trade with care and keep the stops tight. Below is the H4 chart as of 9 am Malaysia.  rel="lightbox" title="http://www.gjtrader.co.cc/" double trouble for the bulls???Saturday, April 17, 2010A confirmed hanging man and an abandoned baby candlestick formations has developed on the weekly and daily charts respectively - a rare occasion where both the weekly and daily timeframes are in tandem to show that the bulls are currently in a double trouble situation. In my humble opinion, there is a high probability that the the 140.90 minor support could easily be broken and the price could drop further to test the next support level at 138.20 area. Let's see what the market has in store for us next week.  possible exhaustion gap???Tuesday, April 13, 2010This week the price gapped up but failed to sustain the momentum and later, the day closed within the opening gap; implying that the bulls might have exhausted and losing their steam. A shooting star candlestick also has formed; indicating that the market sentiment has turned bearish - at least for the time being. A possible double top formation is now in play but bears still need to break the minor support at 140.9x to have the upper hand over the bulls. However the battle is not yet won unless the lower major trendline is broken. Below is the daily chart as of 5 am Malaysia.   hanging man on weekly chart???Saturday, April 10, 2010A bearish hanging man candlestick has formed on the weekly chart; providing a slight clue that the bears are still trying to gain ground on the market. However a bearish candle on the daily is needed to CONFIRM that the bears are gaining momentum to wrest the battlefield from the bulls. The chart below outlines my trading plan for next week. A price close above 144.5x will invalidate the plan.  Update (5 days later):  bears, watch out 139 level...Thursday, April 8, 2010So far, the beast is on track with it's southwards journey. However, the the bears need to be careful and watch 139 level closely. Below H4 chart shows that 139 is a crucial level and might dictate a possible major trend reversal should the price fails to pierce through it. Meanwhile it is best to wait for confirmation before jumping into a trade.  Update:  evening star formation???Wednesday, April 7, 2010A variance of evening star formation has appeared on the daily chart - usually a reliable confirmation that the price should continue the southwards journey. Possible target projections are placed at 140.9x and 139.6x which are the 38.2% and 50% retracement level of previous upwards swing. Below is the daily chart as of 5 am Malaysia.  Update:  H4 outlookTuesday, April 6, 2010After such a sharp upwards move, it seems now that the bulls are losing their momentum and should start a downwards correction phase. A 38.2% retracement will bring the price down to 140.9x and I wouldn't be surprised if the beast decides to go down all way to 138.4x which coincides with the GBPJPY's favorite 61.8% retracement level within next few days. Below is the H4 chart as of 1 pm Malaysia.  Update:  map to the future???Saturday, April 3, 2010The price is now managed to close slightly above the major trendline on the daily chart. However the breakout is not decisive yet and more confirmation is needed to determine next direction. In my humble opinion, even if the trend has changed, the price still needs to go down to 138.xx level and only then we could see whether the bulls are still insistent or not.  Update (as 17 April):  bears' last defense.....Friday, April 2, 2010Now the price has shot up and reached the bears last defense at 143.60, where there is a confluence of the major descending trendline and clusters of crucial SnR level. However, thin trading volume is expected tomorrow as the European banks will be on holiday and the price action could be erratic until the NFP data release tomorrow night. Until then, good luck and happy trading. Below is the daily chart showing the crucial trendline and SnR level to be watched.  where are all the bears???Thursday, April 1, 2010The bulls are really having their fun this week with the bears are still nowhere in sight. After looking around, at last, I found the bears and joined them.....  
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