Daily GJ Technical Analysis

h4 chart at market closing

Price is currently already above the the daily upper trendline; which is drawn from Sept 24th to Jan 7th. Now it is testing the 130.00 resistance zone and could either break it or rebound from the it.

However, the trend reversal, if any, should only be confirmed if the price breaks 135.00 resistance level; which coincides with daily EMA50.

On the downside, a move below 128.00 level should dictates that the downtrend is still intact.

Meanwhile, the fundamental outlooks for Japanese yen and British pound are still bullish and bearish respectively at the moment. Therefore, the fundamental outlook for GBPJPY is still BEARISH. >:)

The British pound was the strongest of all the majors not only on Friday, but during the entire week, as the currency trades in a highly speculative manner. Indeed, over the past 5 days, the British pound has rallied 8.6 percent against the New Zealand dollar and roughly 6.3 percent against the euro and Japanese yen in an attempt to recoup the massive losses accumulated between October 2008 and January 2009.

However, with both Credit Suisse overnight index swaps and a Bloomberg News poll reflecting expectations that the Bank of England will cut rates by another 50 basis points at 7:00 ET on Thursday to a new record low of 1 percent., it’s worth wondering how far this British pound rally can extend.

There are few doubts that the BOE will at least consider slashing rates again since the UK remains in a deep recession and officials anticipate that things will only get worse. In fact, BOE Monetary Policy Committee Member David Blanchflower, who is easily the most outspoken and dovish member on the Committee, issued very dovish comments on January 29, saying that the UK economy may face a recession worse than that of the one in the 1980’s and that the Bank Rate needs to be cut “further and quickly.”

Furthermore, he said that the MPC has considered their options in the case that the Bank Rate is cut to zero, which was quite timely comment when you consider that Chancellor of the Exchequer Alistair Darling gave the BOE permission today to buy 50 billion pounds worth of bond and commercial paper in order to alleviate tight credit conditions. Overall, this leaves the odds in favor of year another rate cut by the BOE on February 5, but the reaction of the British pound may depend on what sort of bias is reflected in the Monetary Policy Committee’s subsequent statement.

source: http://www.dailyfx.com/

daily chart - as of 11.30 am Malaysia

A dragonfly candle has appeared on the daily chart. Should yesterday's low (126.49) is broken, this might signify a beginning of downwards move.

As I was away from chart this morning, I entered my sell position a little bit late. However, my position is currently at +50. [-o< Now thinking to hold the position for a few days. >:)

UPDATE:
 6.00 pm - tough trading day #:-S
           all my sell positions stopped out at +1
           decided to wait until price breaks this morning low
           otherwise I will stay out 
 9.00 pm - at last, a bearish candle came out on the hourly chart
           hopefully, the beast keep dropping... [-o<
       
 9.35 pm - some US news caused the price to whipsaw
           stopped out at +1
           re-sell at 128.26; SL locked at +1 again =))
10.27 pm - closed at +40
           done for the week
           lesson for the day: DO NOT TRADE DURING MONTH END :))

chart h4 - 10 am Malaysia

A doji followed by a bearish candle should indicate a trend continuation. Should the bears come back strongly, fib expansion 161.8% shows a possibility for the beast to hit 101.74 in coming weeks.>:)

By the way, my sell position is currently +50; SL rest at +3.

UPDATED:
 1.00 pm - +154 and +84
           both positions locked in profit
           no more risk [-o<
           stressless trading b-)
 3.15 pm - added another sell at 126.903
           now at +195, +126 and +29
           all positions locked in profit....
           will ride the roller coaster all the way down... :D
 4.30 pm - price action started to get choppy...
           decided to take 2/3 of the profit..
           the other 1/3 - all locked in profit..
           done for the day [-o<

chart h1 - 6 am Malaysia

I believe the bears will come out today... >:)

As long as the price stays below 126.00 (which is the fib 50% level of yesterday hi-lo) and provided that the yellow trendline is pierced, my target projections will be:

1. yesterday low - 124.23
2. fib 138.2% level - 122.92
3. fib 161.8% level -122.11

Good luck and happy pipping ;))

UPDATE:
 9.00 am - smart bears... :))
           pushed the price up to 127.00 to trap those poor bulls=((
           went short at 126.80
           +94 already; SL rest at +10 [-o<
       
 9.25 am - managed to close at +85
 1.30 pm - weird price action :-/
           market moves erratically and have no direction...
           might stay out today... 
 9.10 pm - getting bored already (:|
           called it a day...
11.00 pm - stubborn me :">
           decided to take a calculated risk
           a abandoned baby pattern has appeared on the hourly chart
           looks like the lower trendline will be broken soon
           my stop-loss is 30 pips above the candle's high
           let's see whether it will be stopped out or not :-ss
11.48 pm - SL hit :(
           forgot about crude oil result coming out at 11.30 pm