Daily GJ Technical Analysis

As of 2 pm (Malaysia time)

Price already pulled back to trendline. Will it continue southbound?

UPDATE: Price hit 196.99 at lowest point ( a potential of 170 pip gain)

March 31 (Bloomberg) -- Asian stocks fell, sending the region's benchmark to its biggest decline in two weeks, on concern faltering U.S. consumer spending will hurt exports of cars, clothes and electronics.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=auPMGzzzhEQE&refer=home

Most of Europe will embark on daylight saving time, also known as “Summer Time”, on March 30, 2008. Most European countries will push time forward by one hour for daylight saving time in their fixed time zones on this date. For Western Europe, including United Kingdom, clocks are moved from 1am to 2am. In Central Europe, including Germany, France, Spain and Italy, clocks are moved from 2am to 3am. Eastern Europe's clocks move from 3am to 4am. Daylight saving time applies to all European Union (EU) countries, including Denmark’s self-governing province of Greenland, as well as parts of Russia, including Moscow and St Petersburg.


http://www.timeanddate.com/news/time/europe-daylight-saving-time-2008.html

H4 - expecting the price to pull back to the trendline before continuing south-bound to test next support (195.50)

Daily - price mostly like will go down and re-test previous low (192.57)

2.15 am (Malaysia time)
15min chart

Head & Shoulder pattern is forming at 15min chart

UPDATE: 7.15 am Price went down to 199.65 (gain of 44 pips). Decided to close the post as there are several Japan news coming up at 7.30 am

Will GJ go south again??

At 15min chart, I went short at 200.04 due to following factors:

1. pin bar has formed
2. macd already in overbought zone
3. price hesitating at fibo 23.6 level
4. 200.00 looks good as a round number

SL : 100 pip above swing high (201.89)

UPDATE: 8 pm - price went up to 200.89 and have yet to hit SL.
8.30 pm - good Unemployment Claims data caused the price shot up to 201.71.
10.00 pm - price is at 201.30.
2.15 am - price is ranging between 200.00 to 200.20 area. Head & shoulder pattern is forming. Continue here.

March 26 (Bloomberg) -- Orders for U.S. durable goods unexpectedly fell in February, led by a slump in demand for machinery, as the housing downturn and the prospect of a recession made companies hesitant to invest.

The 1.7 percent drop in demand for products made to last at least three years followed a 4.7 percent decrease in the prior month, the Commerce Department said today in Washington. The department also reported that sales of new homes dropped 1.8 percent last month to a 13-year low.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aEc3V4J.EkXs&refer=home

March 26 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks fell for the first time in four days on a worsening outlook for bank profits, an unexpected drop in durable goods orders and concern that financing for buyouts will collapse.

Citigroup Inc. tumbled the most in the Dow Jones Industrial Average and led financials to their biggest retreat in almost two weeks after Oppenheimer & Co.'s Meredith Whitney said the largest U.S. bank's quarterly loss will be four times bigger than previously forecast. General Electric Co. and United Technologies Corp. declined on the worst-ever slump in machinery demand. Clear Channel Communications Inc. posted its steepest drop since July 2002 on concern banks will pull loans for the broadcaster's $19.5 billion takeover.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=adfKJpejJZ_A&refer=home

March 26 (Bloomberg) -- Asian stocks dropped for the first time in four days, led by automakers and technology companies, after U.S. consumer confidence declined and falling U.S. sales forced Hino Motors Ltd. to take a one-time charge.

Hino, Japan's largest maker of heavy-duty trucks, slumped for the first time in six days in Tokyo. Canon Inc. dropped after JPMorgan Chase & Co. lowered its rating, saying a stronger yen will dent earnings. Santos Ltd. and Newcrest Mining Ltd. jumped after crude oil, copper and gold prices advanced.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=az_jY0txX4s8&refer=home

Evening star (bearish reversal candle)
- a top reversal pattern where the first is a tall real body, the second is a small real body (green or red) which gaps high to form a star. The third is a red candlestick which closes well into the first session's green real body.

For the trend reversal to be valid, price has to break yesterday's low and then should hit 197.76.

UPDATE: At 6.30 pm (Malaysian time) - price hit 197.76.

March 26 (Bloomberg) -- Japan's stocks fell after U.S. consumer confidence dropped more than forecast, fueling concern Americans will demand fewer Japanese-made cars and electronics.

Canon Inc., the world's biggest digital-camera maker, headed for the steepest decline in a week, while Sony Corp., which gets more than a quarter of its electronics sales from the U.S., declined. Trading companies gained after commodity prices rose.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601101&sid=aSSiB8XXdIFU&refer=japan

8.15 pm (Malaysian time)

If price managed to break minor trendline, my 1st TP is 198.38 and the next one is 197.23

Trade on your own risk....

Happy trading.....

UPDATED: lowest price as of 10.30 pm is 198.98 (a potential of 115 pip gain). Closed the order with 80 pips.

March 25 (Bloomberg) -- Confidence among U.S. consumers probably fell to a five-year low in March as more Americans lost their jobs and gasoline prices climbed, economists said before reports today.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=alJsX2zhXsO4&refer=home

4.40 pm (Malaysian time)

Hidden bearish divergence
1. Price - lower high
2. MACD - higher high

Indicates underlying weakness. Found during retracements in a downtrend. Nice to see during price retests of previous highs.

“Sell the rallies”.

Price had dropped 48 pips. Already moved SL to +10 pips. Will let the profit ride. 1st TP is 197.26 (weekly 50% fibo level).

March 25 (Bloomberg) -- The yen traded near a one-week low against the dollar on speculation rising Asian stocks will renew investors' confidence in higher-yielding currencies.

Japan's currency declined against the Australian and New Zealand dollars, two favorites of so-called carry trades, after JPMorgan Chase & Co. agreed to buy 39.5 percent of Bear Stearns Cos., increasing the chance that a Federal Reserve-sponsored bailout will succeed. The dollar traded near a two-week high against the euro on optimism U.S. interest rate cuts will support economic growth.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a2cUKSoBLTZQ&refer=home

H4 at 6 am (Malaysia time)

Bearish harami candle has formed. Expecting price to retrace to the bottom of the triangle, which coincides with weekly fibo 50% level (197.16).

Banks around the world will be closed in observance of Easter Monday. US and Japanese banks will remain open. Low liquidity is expected for all Forex sessions.

March 21 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks posted their biggest gain in seven weeks after the Federal Reserve injected more cash into the banking system and Wall Street's largest securities firms posted earnings that topped estimates.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aF0DUl43PhhY&refer=home

March 21 (Bloomberg) -- The biggest commodity collapse in at least five decades may signal Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke has revived confidence in U.S. financial firms.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aGnGoiVO0304&refer=home

Banks around the world will be closed in observance of Good Friday. US and Japanese banks will remain open. Low liquidity is expected for all Forex sessions.

No single quasi-private institution has as much influence on the worldwide economy as the Fed, and as a leader can head this institution for an indefinite term, no one man is as influential on the markets as the Fed Chair.

The Dollar has plummeted in the currency markets and shows few signs of recovery or even stabilization. The new style and policies that accompanied Bernanke into office have made the Forex markets more volatile than ever and even more difficult to predict. An examination of what has gone awry can help Forex traders understand this new era at the Fed.

http://www.bankaholic.com/2008/federal-reserve-is-failure/

Head & Shoulder formation at GU (H4)
Let us see how it will affect GJ?

March 18 (Bloomberg) -- The Federal Reserve cut its main lending rate by three-quarters of a percentage point to 2.25 percent as officials try to prop up the faltering economy and restore faith in the U.S. financial system.

Chairman Ben S. Bernanke is struggling to cushion consumers and companies from the worst of the credit freeze that's made some of the world's biggest banks reluctant to lend to each other. Officials also showed renewed concern about inflation, making a smaller reduction than traders anticipated. Two policy makers dissented in favor of ``less aggressive action.''

``Recent information indicates that the outlook for economic activity has weakened further,'' the Federal Open Market Committee said in a statement today after meeting in Washington. At the same time, ``inflation has been elevated, and some indicators of inflation expectations have risen.''

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aCK8lsj4v6zI&refer=home

It was another record breaking week with EUR/USD scoring new record high of 1.5687. More importantly, violent moves in the market pushed some pairs through important long term levels. USD/CHF took out parity for the first time in life. USD/JPY broke 100 psychological for the first time since 1995. GBP/JPY also broke 200 psychological level. Fed's new Term Securities Lending Facility might have triggered a strong rebound in the stock markets, but provided non sustainable impact in the forex markets. Bearish sentiments in dollar and more noticeably, bullish sentiments in the yen indeed further intensified before the week closed after bail out of Bear Stearns as credit market losses widened.

http://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/market-overview/weekly-review-and-outlook%3a-another-record-week-for-dollar,-no-sign-of-bottom-yet-2008031538812/

Dollar Declines on Speculation Fed Rescue Package Won't Succeed

March 12 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar fell against the euro and the yen on speculation the Federal Reserve's plan to provide funds to banks won't be enough to break the gridlock in money- market lending and stem credit losses.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aeIwKgYrxR_k&refer=home

Dollar to Extend Drop Against Yen as Economic Outlook Worsens

March 12 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar will extend its decline against most major currencies in the next six months as the U.S. economic slowdown deepens, a survey of Bloomberg users showed.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aD4uLd8Sxck8&refer=home

Yen Rises on Speculation Exporters Buying After Growth Report

March 12 (Bloomberg) -- The yen rose on speculation exporters bought the currency, after its biggest slump in six months against the dollar, anticipating Japan's economic growth will outpace the U.S. this year.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aILKoXBW1O6g&refer=home

H1 chart at 6pm Malaysia time

1. regular bearish divergence??
2. bounced off weekly fibo 50%??
3. minor trendline acted as resistance??

I will wait for next reversal candle (to be confirmed with red macd bar) at 7 pm before going short......

Otherwise, I will still stay out...

March 10 (Bloomberg) -- For the first time in more than a decade, foreign exchange traders are confident that the Bank of Japan won't intervene in the currency market, paving the way for the yen to extend its biggest rally since 2000.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20602081&sid=aF7G8V6dLUa4&refer=benchmark_currency_rates

Regular bearish divergence at hourly chart.

March 5 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar may fall to a more-than- decade low of 96.40 yen should it fall past 101.40 yen, Masashi Hashimoto, a senior analyst at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd., said citing technical charts.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&refer=currency&sid=aI0OJxZ58wMI

Pin bar - one of most reliable reversal candlestick patterns.

Flag pattern at weekly chart

Characters of a flag pattern:
1. Preceded by almost a straight line move(called a flagpost)
2. Prices pause for 1 to 3 weeks period
3. Occur at mid-point of the move
4. The trend resumes on a burst of trading activity