Daily GJ Technical Analysis

weekly and h4 chart - 1 pm Malaysia

After yesterday's bull rally of 500 pips, the bulls look exhausted and bounced off the previous lower which now should turned to a resistance. Take note the bounce also occurred at the region of 50% fib retrcement level of the previous bear run.

Will the price keeps tanking?? Let market play it out...

UPDATE:
  6.30 pm - was away from chart and just opened up the chart....
            stopped out at -120 pips...
            done for month; 
            at least still in green for the whole month 

weekly and h4 charts - 12.30 pm Malaysia

♪♫♫♪ go bears go.... ♫♪♫♫♪
♪♫♫♪ when the bears go marching in....♪♫♫♪
♪♫♫♪ oh.. i love to be in the team... ♫♪♫♫♪

the next support is in the region of 135.xx
let wait and see what the beast will do next...

weekly and h4 charts at 3 pm Malaysia

Price has penetrated last week's low. The bearish flag on the weekly chart looks most likely will be completed by the end of this week.

My next target projection is at the region of 135.xx.

weekly and h4 charts as of 12.30 pm Malaysia

The bears are really persisting; making another attempt to close below the H4 lower trendline.

The bulls' last line of defense is at the previous low 140.5xx. Should this last of defense falls, then the bears would keep on marching to the south...

UPDATE:
  8.00 pm - the bears are gaining ground now....
            will the US market agrees?? 
            let us see....
 10.00 pm - good US data results pushed the beast up
            at least, I am out in green 
            enough for the week...
            see you next week... 

weekly and h4 charts at 10 am Malaysia

Geithner's comments pushed the beast up last night; however, it still failed to break fib 38.2% retracement level. I went short at 144.50 (which coincides with fib 50% retracement level), still targeting 138.9x as my 1st profit taking.

Let's see how low the beast will go....

weekly and h4 charts as of 8.00 am Malaysia

Price is currently testing the crucial lower trendline on the H4 chart. Should the trendline is penetrated, my 1st target will be around 138.9x.

Meanwhile, on the weekly chart, the bearish flag formation is about to complete; a strong indication that the beast is riding the south-bound train again....

Will 118.xx be tested again???

weekly and h4 charts at 8.15 am Malaysia

Two bearish candles on the weekly chart indicate that the bulls might be exhausted at the moment.

Today I will look for a sell entry for a possible target at 144.6x which is the 161.8% fib level of the Friday's hi-lo.

Good luck and happy trading.

UPDATE:
  10.15 am - price is now 145.52
             +115 ; SL rest at +45 
   4.30 pm - TP 144.60 hit
             done for the day....

daily chart - 5 am Malaysia

A dark cloud cover candle has formed on the daily chart; indicating that the bears are slowly recovering their territory. There is a possibility that the price will test the lower trendline at the 141.50 region within next couple days.

Entered a sell position at the day opening. Will let the market play it out....

weekly chart as of 10 am

Decided to stay away yesterday due to Easter Monday holiday. Reviewing the weekly chart, last week's candle has closed as a bearish spinning top. This might indicates that the bull's rally might have reached a temporary top last week.

I am waiting the price to penetrate last week's low (145.72) before deciding to go short again. Otherwise, I might not trade this week.

"LESS IS MORE"

Banks at New Zealand, Australia, Europe and UK will be closed today. Thin trading volume is expected today.

Won't trade today...

Meanwhile, here is a report from Bloomberg:

April 9 (Bloomberg) -- The U.K. pound posted a weekly loss against the dollar as British stocks fell for the first time in five weeks.

The British currency also fell against the Japanese yen on concern the recession may be worsening.

read more here.

daily chart at 5 am Malaysia

A variance of evening star formation has formed on the daily chart.

Take note of the similar pattern on January 8th. These coming couple days might belong to the bears....

Still holding my yesterday's sell position (now at -55). Should I stay in front of the chart, I might gain a +160 pip profit...

UPDATE:



chart h1 as of 3 am Malaysia
     strong support at 145.75 still holds
     moved my SL to +15
     hopes the stubborn support to break sooner or later... 
     meanwhile, I placed a sell stop order at 145.50
     just in case the bears keep persisting 

daily chart - 5 am Malaysia

Was away the whole day yesterday. Decided to have a try on "Strat's Long Term Stress Free Trading". There is a long upper wick on the yesterday daily candle; which could be a sign of bulls exhaustion.

I place a sell stop 20 pips below yesterday low with the stop loss placed 20 pips above yesterday high. If I got wrong footed, I will loss 1.5% of my account ONLY.

Disclaimer: This is a medium term trade with a low risk on my account. Intra-day traders might have a different view. I will only look at this position tomorrow morning.

h4 chart at 1 pm Malaysia

Price was rejected at the upper trendline and at last, a bearish candle has appeared on the H4 chart.

Hopefully, this time the bears are back for real.....

UPDATE:
  7.00 pm - stopped out in green
            choppy price action 
            went down about 90 pips before going up 
            no more trading this week as NFP result will be 
            out tonight

chart h4 as of 3.15 am Malaysia

A long legged doji has formed on the H4 chart. In spite of all the excitement and volatility during London session, market is uncertain of the next direction; which also might indicates the early sign of bulls exhaustion.

Based on smaller time-frame price action, I went short at 146.58 with SL placed at 147.24 (a 66 pips risk), in case I am wrong.

daily chart at 6.55 pm Malaysia

Stayed out all day long as the bulls ran amok.
Has been watching the upper trendline on the daily chart.

Now decided to take a CALCULATED risk by going short at 146.64 ; SL 200 pips.

UPDATE:
  7.18 pm - +65; SL rest at +10 

chart h1 at 9.30 pm

Price is attempting to break the lower trendline. Looks likely the next support 140.50 will be tested soon. Should price penetrates the support level, then the double top formation would be validated and the next target is 138.15 (as per height of the double top formation).

UPDATE:
 10.00 pm - overlooked that ISM result is coming out
            price spiked up 40 pips
            my SL is 20 pip above the swing high (143.02)
  5.00 am - decided to close with 120 pips lost

1-minute chart at 8.13 am Malaysia

A crazy spike which must have caught the bulls off guard. Is someone trying to pull our legs on the April Fool's Day?

I was lucky to be on the right side of the spike...