Impact of U.S Interest Rate Hike
9 years ago
Sunday, November 30, 2008 chart h4 - at market close the beast entraps within 300 pips consolidation phase the bulls and the bears agree - at least temporarily - on the beast's price level a imminent breakout could happen in either direction to guard against a false breakout, place a stop:
UPDATE:  chart h1 - 5 pm Malaysia went short earlier at 146.00 when the yellow trendline was broken price is now testing the lower BLUE trendline already closed 1/2 lot (+200 pips) and moved SL to +50 for the remaining 1/2 lot... will ride the profit 6.40 pm: +500 pips, SL moved to +100 10:30 pm: added another short at 140.56 - now +57 and +600 1.30 am: partial closed 2nd order at +200 expecting price to hit 134.xx soon [-o< Thursday, November 27, 2008
no trading today....
US is celebrating Thanksgiving... expecting thin trading volume but could also be very volatile.. remember what happened last year Thanksgiving.. :-ss Wednesday, November 26, 2008 daily chart - 6 am Malaysia price bounced off minor trendline??? dragonfly candle?? explanation from http://candlesticker.com The market is in a bullish mood characterized by an uptrend. Then we see a price action characterized by a sharp sell off when it opens. Prices move down going much lower than the opening price. Then we see a rally in the closing hours of the day, which closes the day at or very near the opening price. However this end-of- day rally signifies the potential for further sell offs. The long lower shadow shows how the market started the day with a sell off. If the market opens lower the next day, we may see a lot of longs eager to sell their positions. UPDATE: this is a swing trade... let see how far the beast will drop... :D 8.30 am: +180 pips, SL moved to +10 9.30 am: +140 pips 12.05 pm: +192 pips 5.30 pm: +110 pips, SL moved to +50 7.30 pm: +204 pips 9.00 pm: +238 pips woke up next morning - SL hit... at least, i'm richer by 50 pips :-" Tuesday, November 25, 2008 chart h1 - 7 am Malaysia major trendline broken?? :-? needs to break 148.00 for trend reversal confirmation... otherwise, market will consolidate within 144.xx - 147.xx range my sell position is already +50 TP:144.20 SL moved to +1 UPDATE: 9.30 am - SL moved to +100 10.30 am - stopped out at 100 pips [-o< 11.00 am - short again at 146.43 - already +30 12.45 pm - decided to bank-in 85 pips ;) Monday, November 24, 2008 chart 30 min - 7.30 am Malaysia went short at 143.38 minor trendline rejection??? S/R zone at 143.50 area...??? a risky trade but one which allows a tight SL (50 pips at 143.88) let's see how market plays it out :-SS UPDATE: by 8.00 am, price went down to 142.70 (+60 pips) moved SL to +1 8.15 am - moved SL to +50 and set trailing stop of 70 pips 10.35 am - stopped out at 110 pips [-o<  chart h4 - at market close some see triple bottom.... i see descending triangle.... too close to call... better stay out and let's the market decide... we just follow... B-) Friday, November 21, 2008 chart 30 min - 3 pm Malaysia hidden bearish divergence??? fibo 38.2% level acts as resistance??? let's pray London session push the beast downwards... [-o< learn more about divergence at babypips UPDATE: huhuhu... stubborn bulls.. the beast still went up... hopefully the following set-up works this time..[-o<  chart h1 6.30 pm Malaysia hidden bearish divergence again??? fibo 50% level(of two-day hi-lo) acts as resistance??? UPDATE II: price went down to 139.50 (potential of 290 pip gain)... later it went up again to 143.00 due to the U.S. Stocks Rally  chart h4 - 4.36 am Malaysia cup and handle pattern is in play... see my previous post here... false hammer candlestick indicates bears are in control... get in sell position early due to prior price action at smaller TFs... now +70... safe already... #:-S immediate TP:136.30 (sorry guys,my new immediate TP now is 134.00) :"> long term TP:115.xx :D UPDATE: stopped out in profit as price retraced upward as of 3 pm, price went up to 141.45 Thursday, November 20, 2008 chart h1 - 5 am Malaysia crucial trendline broken!!!! WELCOME BACK - BEARS..... expecting 140.xx to be hit today... <:-P \:D/ UPDATE: at 12.30 pm, price hit 142.20 already banked in +100 pips... will keep selling on rallies... at 4.45 pm, price hit 141.20 banked-in another 100 pips hit my TP 140.30 at 10.30 pm while i was sleeping... another 90 pip banked-in.. [-o< B-)  30min chart - 3.30 am Malaysia tough trading for a swing trader... price kept bouncing up and down... my earlier sell position was stopped out with some loss due to the false breakout... only strict money management will save your account... went short again at 144.99 and already moved SL to +10.. now still waiting for the trendline to be broken... UPDATE: stopped out at +10... the bull is still stubborn... :)) Wednesday, November 19, 2008 h1 chart - 6 am Malaysia rising wedge (bearish pattern) or ascending triangle (bullish pattern)?? too close to call.... better stayout and wait.... :-w bears need to break previous low (143.58), in order for the beast to dive... Saturday, November 15, 2008 chart h4 at market closing possible inverted cup and handle pattern? usually a indication of trend continuation... a breakout below 139.xx should be the confirmation... the height of the cup indicates the possible target... hence, should the breakout occurs, mission 115.xx would begin... dateline: two weeks... B-) learn more about cup and handle pattern here  chart h4 - 3 am Malaysia double bottom formation.... price breaks upwards the previous trendline... might reach 150.xx already went long based on smaller TF price action... already 100++ pips... :D p/s this is the FIRST time i ever went long since aug 4th.. UPDATE: SL +ve hit... dow jones crushed at market closing... crazy friday... huhuhuhu bears might be back next week... 
Thursday, November 13, 2008 chart h1 as of 2 pm Malaysia... price in retracement mode.. might pull-back to 145.00 (confluence of previous broken trendline and 61.8% fibo level) should price rejected by the green trendline, the beast will drop again... :d UPDATE: daily candle close at 144.93 amazing, isn't it? now will the trendline acts as a resistance? 
Tuesday, November 11, 2008 chart h4 - 8.15 am Malaysia should the lower trendline is broken.... the red arrows will be my TPs... UPDATE: erratic price action today... only managed to scalp a few pips here and there... however the set-up still valid... at last, price hit 140.28 at 6 am Malaysia Nov 13th price is now retracing up wards..  chart h4- 12.45 am Malaysia price bounced off channel top... strong bearish h4 candle.... had been selling on rallies all day long... 1st TP 150.50... should the beast breaks the channel bottom, 139.xx is a possiblity... B-) Monday, November 10, 2008 chart h4 - 10 am Malaysia price is testing crucial trendline... price could either break through or rebounce off the trendline meanwhile... staying out is the best option... :D p/s just went short 157.21 SL 157.71 (50 pip risk) let see how the beast will play it out UPDATE: by 11.40 am already +70 moved SL to +10 choppy price... closed at +45 Saturday, November 8, 2008 h4 chart at market close will price bounce off the white dotted trendline??? should 156.186 holds, 144.xxx is a possibility... let's wait and see.....  UPDATE: market gapped upward thus, this set-up is not valid... Thursday, November 6, 2008
something to ponder.....
the lower the interest rate.... the lower the currency value will be...
 chart h4 - 8 am Malaysia bearish evening star formation?? should price breaks 153.70, 150.xx is my target price p/s BOE interest rate at 8 pm tonite most likely cut to 4% better avoid trading during that time UPDATE: 20 hours later at 4 am, 153.70 was broken hit 150.30 by 8.30 am had been selling on rallies all day really worth the waiting... [-o< Wednesday, November 5, 2008 chart h4 - at 2 pm Malaysis three black crows??? usually a strong bearish pattern... should bears persist, price might hit 148.70.. :D UPDATE: price went down to 155.20 within next 4 hours later went up to 161.xx  chart h4 - 6 am Malaysia lower highs and lower lows... despite 800 pips rally last night, the beast still respects the downtrend channel... watchout the US presidential election result and adp non-farm payroll tonite... market might be unpredictable... :-SS Tuesday, November 4, 2008 chart h1 - 3 pm Malaysia price testing the confluence of lower trendline and support zones... will it be broken??  Monday, November 3, 2008 chart h4 - 10 pm Malaysia will history repeats itself?? price forming similar pattern prior to previous free fall?? let's sell on rallies... guys.... 1st TP - previous low 139.xx 2nd TP- 125.xx 
 chart h1 - 6 pm Malaysia three bearish candle.... weekly fibo 38.2% rejection.... confluence of weekly fibo 50% level and lower trendline at 159.00 bears needs to pierce 159.00 to wrest control.... UPDATE: at 9.15 pm, price hit 158.60 already +140 pip (entry based on prior price action at smaller TF) let's pray the beast keep diving... [-o< at 10.30 pm, price hit 157.00 - another 200 pips potential gain Saturday, November 1, 2008 daily and h1 charts - at market close high reliability confirmed shooting star at daily chart... series of lower highs at h1... also a possible head and double shoulders pattern at h1... confluence of neckline and lower trendline at 156.00 should 156.00 is broken, bears gonna have a big party again... <:-P UPDATE: 156.00 broken at 11.15 pm Monday... bears should be in-charge now
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
|
