GBPJPY analysis - next week Dec 1st outlook

0 comments Sunday, November 30, 2008

chart h4 - at market close
the beast entraps within 300 pips consolidation phase
the bulls and the bears agree - at least temporarily - on the beast's price level
a imminent breakout could happen in either direction
to guard against a false breakout, place a stop:
  • below the upper BLUE trendline for a upwards breakout
  • above the lower BLUE trendline if the price breaks downwards
good luck and happy trading B-)


chart h1 - 5 pm Malaysia
went short earlier at 146.00 when the yellow trendline was broken
price is now testing the lower BLUE trendline
already closed 1/2 lot (+200 pips) and moved SL to +50 for the remaining 1/2 lot...
will ride the profit

6.40 pm: +500 pips, SL moved to +100
10:30 pm: added another short at 140.56 - now +57 and +600
1.30 am:
partial closed 2nd order at +200
now remaining open orders +200 and +750 (1/2 lot each)

expecting price to hit 134.xx soon

Read On

GBPJPY analysis - Thanksgiving holiday....

0 comments Thursday, November 27, 2008
no trading today....
US is celebrating Thanksgiving...
expecting thin trading volume but could also be very volatile..
remember what happened last year Thanksgiving.. :-ss

Read On

GBPJPY analysis - dragonfly at daily chart???

0 comments Wednesday, November 26, 2008

daily chart - 6 am Malaysia
price bounced off minor trendline???
dragonfly candle??
explanation from
The market is in a bullish mood characterized by an uptrend. Then we see a price action characterized by a sharp sell off when it opens. Prices move down going much lower than the opening price. Then we see a rally in the closing hours of the day, which closes the day at or very near the opening price. However this end-of- day rally signifies the potential for further sell offs. The long lower shadow shows how the market started the day with a sell off. If the market opens lower the next day, we may see a lot of longs eager to sell their positions.

this is a swing trade... let see how far the beast will drop... :D
8.30 am: +180 pips, SL moved to +10
9.30 am: +140 pips
12.05 pm: +192 pips
5.30 pm: +110 pips, SL moved to +50
7.30 pm: +204 pips
9.00 pm: +238 pips
woke up next morning - SL hit... at least, i'm richer by 50 pips :-"

Read On

GBPJPY analysis - consolidation phase???

0 comments Tuesday, November 25, 2008

chart h1 - 7 am Malaysia
major trendline broken?? :-?
needs to break 148.00 for trend reversal confirmation...
otherwise, market will consolidate within 144.xx - 147.xx range
my sell position is already +50 TP:144.20
SL moved to +1

9.30 am - SL moved to +100
10.30 am - stopped out at 100 pips [-o<
11.00 am - short again at 146.43 - already +30
12.45 pm - decided to bank-in 85 pips
Read On

GBPJPY analysis - will 143.50 acts as resistance??

0 comments Monday, November 24, 2008

chart 30 min - 7.30 am Malaysia
went short at 143.38
minor trendline rejection???
S/R zone at 143.50 area...???
a risky trade but one which allows a tight SL (50 pips at 143.88)
let's see how market plays it out :-SS

UPDATE: by 8.00 am, price went down to 142.70 (+60 pips)
moved SL to +1
8.15 am - moved SL to +50 and set trailing stop of 70 pips
10.35 am - stopped out at 110 pips
Read On

GBPJPY analysis - descending triangle or triple bottom??


chart h4 - at market close
some see triple bottom....
i see descending triangle....
too close to call...
better stay out and let's the market decide...
we just follow... B-)
Read On

GBPJPY analysis - retracement completed??

2 comments Friday, November 21, 2008

chart 30 min - 3 pm Malaysia
hidden bearish divergence???
fibo 38.2% level acts as resistance???
let's pray London session push the beast downwards... [-o<

learn more about divergence at babypips

UPDATE: huhuhu... stubborn bulls..
the beast still went up...
hopefully the following set-up works this time..[-o<

chart h1 6.30 pm Malaysia
hidden bearish divergence again???
fibo 50% level(of two-day hi-lo) acts as resistance???

UPDATE II: price went down to 139.50 (potential of 290 pip gain)...
later it went up again to 143.00 due to the U.S. Stocks Rally
Read On

GBPJPY analysis - the beast is diving....


chart h4 - 4.36 am Malaysia
cup and handle pattern is in play...
see my previous post here...
false hammer candlestick indicates bears are in control...
get in sell position early due to prior price action at smaller TFs...
now +70... safe already... #:-S
immediate TP:136.30 (sorry guys,my new immediate TP now is 134.00) :">
long term TP:115.xx :D

UPDATE: stopped out in profit as price retraced upward
as of 3 pm, price went up to 141.45
Read On

GBPJPY analysis - bears are back!!!!

0 comments Thursday, November 20, 2008

chart h1 - 5 am Malaysia
crucial trendline broken!!!!
expecting 140.xx to be hit today...
<:-P \:D/
UPDATE: at 12.30 pm, price hit 142.20
already banked in +100 pips...
will keep selling on rallies...
at 4.45 pm, price hit 141.20
banked-in another 100 pips
hit my TP 140.30 at 10.30 pm
while i was sleeping...
another 90 pip banked-in..

[-o< B-)
Read On

GBPJPY analysis - will the trendline be broken??


30min chart - 3.30 am Malaysia
tough trading for a swing trader...
price kept bouncing up and down...
my earlier sell position was stopped out with some loss due to the false breakout...
only strict money management will save your account...
went short again at 144.99 and already moved SL to +10..
now still waiting for the trendline to be broken...

UPDATE: stopped out at +10...
the bull is still stubborn... :))
Read On

GBPJPY analysis - rising wedge or ascending triangle???

0 comments Wednesday, November 19, 2008

h1 chart - 6 am Malaysia
rising wedge (bearish pattern) or ascending triangle (bullish pattern)??
too close to call....
better stayout and wait....
bears need to break previous low (143.58), in order for the beast to dive...
Read On

GBPJPY analysis - inverted cup and handle at h4??

2 comments Saturday, November 15, 2008

chart h4 at market closing
possible inverted cup and handle pattern?
usually a indication of trend continuation...
a breakout below 139.xx should be the confirmation...
the height of the cup indicates the possible target...
hence, should the breakout occurs, mission 115.xx would begin...
dateline: two weeks...

learn more about cup and handle pattern here
Read On

GBPYJPY analysis - 150.00 now??


chart h4 - 3 am Malaysia
double bottom formation....
price breaks upwards the previous trendline...
might reach 150.xx
already went long based on smaller TF price action...
already 100++ pips...
p/s this is the FIRST time i ever went long since aug 4th..

UPDATE: SL +ve hit...
dow jones crushed at market closing... crazy friday... huhuhuhu
bears might be back next week...

Read On

GBPJPY analysis - retrace to 145.00??

0 comments Thursday, November 13, 2008

chart h1 as of 2 pm Malaysia...
price in retracement mode..
might pull-back to 145.00 (confluence of previous broken trendline and 61.8% fibo level)
should price rejected by the green trendline, the beast will drop again...
UPDATE: daily candle close at 144.93
amazing, isn't it?
now will the trendline acts as a resistance?

Read On

GBPJPY anlysis - 140.xx soon???

0 comments Tuesday, November 11, 2008

chart h4 - 8.15 am Malaysia
should the lower trendline is broken....
the red arrows will be my TPs...

UPDATE: erratic price action today...
only managed to scalp a few pips here and there...

however the set-up still valid...

at last, price hit 140.28 at 6 am Malaysia Nov 13th
price is now retracing up wards..
Read On

GBPJPY analysis - bounced off top channel???


chart h4- 12.45 am Malaysia
price bounced off channel top...
strong bearish h4 candle....
had been selling on rallies all day long...
1st TP 150.50...
should the beast breaks the channel bottom, 139.xx is a possiblity...
Read On

GBPJPY anaysis - bulls trying to take over???

0 comments Monday, November 10, 2008

chart h4 - 10 am Malaysia
price is testing crucial trendline...
price could either break through or rebounce off the trendline
meanwhile... staying out is the best option...
p/s just went short 157.21 SL 157.71 (50 pip risk)
let see how the beast will play it out

UPDATE: by 11.40 am already +70
moved SL to +10
choppy price... closed at +45
Read On

GBPJPY analysis - 144.xx next week??

0 comments Saturday, November 8, 2008

h4 chart at market close
will price bounce off the white dotted trendline???
should 156.186 holds, is a possibility...
let's wait and see.....

UPDATE: market gapped upward
thus, this set-up is not valid...
Read On

GBPJPY analysis - will lower interest rate weakens the pound value???

0 comments Thursday, November 6, 2008
something to ponder.....
the lower the interest rate.... the lower the currency value will be...

countryinterest ratepaircurrency value
UK (previous)
UK (current)
below 125.xx???
Read On

GBPJPY analysis - 150.xx today??


chart h4 - 8 am Malaysia
bearish evening star formation??
should price breaks 153.70, 150.xx is my target price

p/s BOE interest rate at 8 pm tonite
most likely cut to 4%
better avoid trading during that time

UPDATE: 20 hours later at 4 am, 153.70 was broken
hit 150.30 by 8.30 am
had been selling on rallies all day
really worth the waiting...

Read On

GBPJPY analysis - three black crows???

0 comments Wednesday, November 5, 2008

chart h4 - at 2 pm Malaysis
three black crows???
usually a strong bearish pattern...
should bears persist, price might hit 148.70..
UPDATE: price went down to 155.20 within next 4 hours
later went up to 161.xx
Read On

GBPJPY analysis - downtrend still intact....


chart h4 - 6 am Malaysia
lower highs and lower lows...
despite 800 pips rally last night, the beast still respects the downtrend channel...
watchout the US presidential election result and adp non-farm payroll tonite...
market might be unpredictable...
Read On

GBPJPY analysis - waiting for the trendline to be broken...

0 comments Tuesday, November 4, 2008

chart h1 - 3 pm Malaysia
price testing the confluence of lower trendline and support zones...
will it be broken??

Read On

GBPJPY analysis - deja vu??

0 comments Monday, November 3, 2008

chart h4 - 10 pm Malaysia
will history repeats itself??
price forming similar pattern prior to previous free fall??
let's sell on rallies... guys....
1st TP - previous low 139.xx
2nd TP- 125.xx
Read On

GBPJPY analysis - waiting for 159.00 to be broken.....


chart h1 - 6 pm Malaysia
three bearish candle....
weekly fibo 38.2% rejection....
confluence of weekly fibo 50% level and lower trendline at 159.00
bears needs to pierce 159.00 to wrest control....

UPDATE: at 9.15 pm, price hit 158.60
already +140 pip (entry based on prior price action at smaller TF)
let's pray the beast keep diving...
at 10.30 pm, price hit 157.00 - another 200 pips potential gain

Read On

GBPJPY analysis - bearish again next week?

2 comments Saturday, November 1, 2008

daily and h1 charts - at market close
high reliability confirmed shooting star at daily chart...
series of lower highs at h1...
also a possible head and double shoulders pattern at h1...
confluence of neckline and lower trendline at 156.00
should 156.00 is broken, bears gonna have a big party again...
UPDATE: 156.00 broken at 11.15 pm Monday...
bears should be in-charge now

Read On