Impact of U.S Interest Rate Hike
9 years ago
Saturday, January 31, 2009 h4 chart at market closing Price is currently already above the the daily upper trendline; which is drawn from Sept 24th to Jan 7th. Now it is testing the 130.00 resistance zone and could either break it or rebound from the it. However, the trend reversal, if any, should only be confirmed if the price breaks 135.00 resistance level; which coincides with daily EMA50. On the downside, a move below 128.00 level should dictates that the downtrend is still intact. Meanwhile, the fundamental outlooks for Japanese yen and British pound are still bullish and bearish respectively at the moment. Therefore, the fundamental outlook for GBPJPY is still BEARISH. >:) The British pound was the strongest of all the majors not only on Friday, but during the entire week, as the currency trades in a highly speculative manner. Indeed, over the past 5 days, the British pound has rallied 8.6 percent against the New Zealand dollar and roughly 6.3 percent against the euro and Japanese yen in an attempt to recoup the massive losses accumulated between October 2008 and January 2009. source: http://www.dailyfx.com/ Friday, January 30, 2009 daily chart - as of 11.30 am Malaysia A dragonfly candle has appeared on the daily chart. Should yesterday's low (126.49) is broken, this might signify a beginning of downwards move. As I was away from chart this morning, I entered my sell position a little bit late. However, my position is currently at +50. [-o< Now thinking to hold the position for a few days. >:) UPDATE: Thursday, January 29, 2009 chart h4 - 10 am Malaysia A doji followed by a bearish candle should indicate a trend continuation. Should the bears come back strongly, fib expansion 161.8% shows a possibility for the beast to hit 101.74 in coming weeks.>:) By the way, my sell position is currently +50; SL rest at +3. UPDATED: Wednesday, January 28, 2009 chart h1 - 6 am Malaysia I believe the bears will come out today... >:) As long as the price stays below 126.00 (which is the fib 50% level of yesterday hi-lo) and provided that the yellow trendline is pierced, my target projections will be:
Good luck and happy pipping ;)) UPDATE: Tuesday, January 27, 2009 chart h4 - 10 am Malaysia A bullish candle on the daily indicates a possible rally to 127.00 - 128.00 region. Even though the price might go down to 122.40 (fib 50% level), a tight stop-loss must be placed above yesterday's high (125.00). As the price is now moves within 124.00 - 125.00, it is better to stay out until the beast breaks out from this tight range.... UPDATE: Monday, January 26, 2009 chart h1 - 10 am Malaysia A possible descending triangle is forming on the hourly chart. As long as the price remains below the upper trendline, bears are very much in control... Should the price breaks the bottom trendline, the triangle height indicates a 600 pips downwards move. Let's see how the market play it out... :D UPATE: Saturday, January 24, 2009 h4 chart at market closing Next week, I will watching closely whether the price could break the 124.00 - 125.00 resistance zone. As long as the price remains below 125.00, my outlook will still remains bearish. Should the price breaks the previous low (118.81), the beast should easily hit 115.00 region soon.... Happy trading and good luck... B-) Friday, January 23, 2009 chart 15 min - 3.15 pm Malaysia Price is currently entrapped between the two trendlines. Now I am waiting the price to pierce the confluence of lower trendline and yesterday's low. Should the price breaks downwards, my target projections are 119.50 and 118.50; which are the fib levels of 138.2% and 161.8% respectively. UPDATE: Thursday, January 22, 2009 h1 chart - 10 am Malaysia A bullish pinbar has formed on the daily chart. However, the crazy move of 500 pips spike yesterday was due to the UJ currency option expiry; which might not reflects the true picture of market situation. Right now, I consider the range between 123.00 and 125.50 as "no man's land". No trade will be taken within that area. Simply said, a breakout above 125.50 would indicate a temporary break of the current downtrend. Meanwhile, a breakout below 123.00 indicates trend continuation. Meanwhile, I would stay out on the sidelines. B-) Nobody ever lose their account by staying out... :-B UPDATE: Wednesday, January 21, 2009 chart h1 - 12 pm Malaysia A spinning top has appeared at the confluence of daily fib 76.4% level and the resistance cluster. Take note of the 126.00 level - "round number" significance. Looks bears are still too strong. Should the support at 124.24 breaks, my target projection is at the 121.00 region. :D Note: Today's fib 132.8% and 161.8% levels are at 122.22 and 120.70 respectively. UPDATE: Tuesday, January 20, 2009 chart h1 - 8.30 am Malaysia The beast moved so swift; my sell position is already +85 within minutes. Now watching closely whether last week low could be penetrated or not. UPDATED: Monday, January 19, 2009Investors should sell the U.K. currency against both the yen and the dollar on speculation more than $1 trillion of asset writedowns worldwide and rising credit losses will damp demand for riskier assets, Stretch said. It may drop to $1.40 and 1.285 yen in the “next couple of weeks,” he said. source: Bloomberg  chart 15 min - 11.45 am Malaysia Price bounced off Friday high level and forming a engulfing bearish candle. Went short at 135.51 with a stop-loss placed at 136.01. Target projection is at 133.50 (fibo 50% level of Friday hi-lo). UPATE: Saturday, January 17, 2009 h4 chart at market close Price went down to 129.5 region which is the 138.2% fibo level of previous week hi-lo. Then it went 620 pip but still unable to break 61.8% level; which usually is an indication that bears are still in control. Next week there are several resistances for the bulls to test, namely:
As long the price remains below fibo 50%, my bias will stays bearish. Should the price be able to break 129.50, it might try to go to 124.00 :-SS By the way, keep your stop-loss tight and trade what you see... :d Good luck and happy trading... Friday, January 16, 2009 chart h1 - 3 pm Malaysia Stayed away from chart this morning as I didn't take the bullish set-up. Now a bearish dark cloud cover has appeared at the hourly chart. Might be a sign of bull exhaustion. Already moved my stop-loss (initially at 134.65) to +5 with a target projection of 131.82 (fibo 50% level of the yesterday bull run). UPDATE: Thursday, January 15, 2009 daily and h1 chart - 8am Malaysia An inverted hammer has appeared on the daily chart, which alerts sellers that buyers might be lurking nearby. My today trading strategy is to stay out until the market shows us the next direction by breaking any of the trendlines drawn on the hourly chart. UPDATE: Wednesday, January 14, 2009 chart h1 - 5 pm A pinbar has formed at h1 chart - a high reliability reversal candle. Already shorted earlier as the price bounced from resistance zone at 132.00. Already +100 pip. Stop-loss rest at +5. B-) UPDATE:  chart h1 - 12 pm Malaysia Price is rejected by fibo 50% level and a engulfing bearish candle has formed. Usually a strong indication of trend continuation. Initial stop-loss is placed at 131.00. Will move the stop-loss to +1 once reached +30 profit. First target is yesterday low (128.82) Second target is 127.38 (fibo 138.2% level) Last target is 126.49 (fibo 161.8%) UPDATE: Tuesday, January 13, 2009 chart h1 - 6 am Malaysia Three black crows had formed at the daily chart; which indicates that the current trend is extremely bearish. Meanwhile, at the hourly chart, a possible bearish flag pattern might be in progress. Should this bearish flag is valid, a breakout on the downwards side could be anticipated. The pole height could be used as a target projection; which means the price could make a new low at 128.64. :-? UPDATE: Monday, January 12, 2009 chart h1 - 8 am Malaysia As expected, the price gapped down this morning. Now it is testing 136.00 S/R zone. Should this S/R zone is penetrated, it might drop to next S/R zone, which is at 134.40. By the way, Tokyo is on holiday today. Let's see whether there are enough bears around to push the beast down or not... :D UPDATE: Sunday, January 11, 2009
let's see whether this gap remains until market open or not.... :-"
chart removed Friday, January 9, 2009 Daily and hourly charts - 5.30 am Malaysia Still half an hour to go for the candles closing. Head and shoulder pattern is currently in formation at the hourly chart. I am expecting the neckline to be broken soon due to the evening star formation; which is a high reliability reversal indication; at the daily chart. Should the price breaks the neckline, my target projection is at the next support (135.44). Note: I will stop trading before US session and stay out during the NFP result announcement. UPDATE: Thursday, January 8, 2009 chart 15 min - 6.15 pm Malaysia Re-entered another sell position as price was rejected by fibo 50%. Also an abandoned baby pattern has been formed. By the time I posted this chart, my sweet baby had dived 50 pips. Stop-loss moved to +5. Possible target projection is at 161.8% fibo (135.58). UPDATE:  Daily chart - at 9 am Malaysia A doji candle has formed at daily chart, which might indicates buyers are now uncertain whether to push the price further up or not. A failure to break yesterday high could signify that the bulls might be exhausted; at least for the time being. Now I am waiting for the price to break lower trendline at H1 chart before deciding to go SHORT. Should I decide to go short, my stop-loss will be placed slightly above yesterday high (141.55). Latest news from Bloomberg: Bank of England May Cut Benchmark Interest Rate to Record Low UPDATE: Wednesday, January 7, 2009 chart h4 - 2 pm Malaysia Price is in stagnant phase as it has reached an important S/R zone. Market is waiting for clues for next move. I will rather wait for a breakout of either previous high or low (140.86 and 138.90 respectively) to be sure of next direction... UPDATE:  chart h1 - 6 am Malaysia A doji followed by a long bearish candle indicate a possible downward move. I went short at 139.92 with the target projection at 138.20 (fibo 50% level of yesterday hi-lo). Currently, already +18. As usual, I will move my stop-loss to +1 once the profit reach +30. UPDATE: Tuesday, January 6, 2009 chart h4 - 6.20 pm Malaysia Price had closed above yesterday high. A rising three method pattern had also formed at H4 chart, which usually a high reliable trend continuation signal. I went long at 138.04 with a profit-taking target at 140.44. Stop-loss is at 136.84 (120 pips risk). UPDATE: GBPJPY analysis - 135.21 next?? chart h1 - 7 am Malaysia The immediate trend has turned bullish as the previous resistance zone at 134.00 has been broken. The beast moved 460 pips to hit yesterday high at 137.55. Now I am expecting the price to go down to 50% fibonacci retracement (135.21) before next direction could be determined. I went short at 136.97 due to the engulfing bearish candle with a stop-loss at 137.75 (20 pips above yesterday high). Will move the stop-loss to +1 if the profit hit +30. Let see whether Tokyo market agrees with my expectation or not... :-B UPDATE: Monday, January 5, 2009 chart h4 - 10 am Malaysia as expected, 134.00 remained a tough resistance a bearish harami candle might signify that the bears are trying to take over based on prior price action at the smaller time-frames, i went short at 133.91 with an initial stop-loss placed at 134.50 now already +90 and SL moved to +10 [-o< UPDATE: Welcome 2009Saturday, January 3, 2009
Welcome back, guys...
let's get back to the business.. to be frank, I do not like what I see on the chart... the beast moved erratically in a low volume market during the year-end holiday... let's take a look on the daily chart... price moved within two converging trendlines, forming a falling wedge pattern... price made a new low (129.82) on Dec 30th... however, price bounced up and rose above the upper trendline on Jan 2nd... in a normal day, I would have declared that the downtrend has ended... however, the bulls still need to break 139-140 resistance zone to win the battle.... furthermore, the fundamental outlook is still dovish at the moment... meanwhile, my current bias is neutral and will take a trade at a time... B-) 
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
|
