Daily GJ Technical Analysis

WHAT I LEARNED THIS YEAR

I learned to trade only in ONE pair. I don’t want to be a jack of all trades, master of none. Trading only one pair makes you focused and helps you to understand how it moves better.

I learned that once a trend in forex market is in place, it could last for weeks, sometime up to months and years. Those who started selling GPB/JPY on Aug 12th, when the price penetrated the daily lower trendline at 210.xx, might gain a whopping 7,800 pips profit by Dec 27th. :-O

Therefore, I learned only to trade in direction of MAJOR trend. In bull market, buy on dips; in bear market, sell on rallies. I do and still make mistakes, but the market will save me when I trade with the trend.

I learned to have a trading plan. I look for chart patterns at weekly, daily and h4 time frames and find out the crucial S/L levels. Then I go down to smaller time frames only to look for “best entry”.

I also learned the importance of money management. It is not how MUCH you make, but it is how LONG you survive in this business. Trading big lot sizes is not only against the principle of good money management, it also drains you emotionally. Trading small lot size is less demanding; make it easier for you to cut loss as you are aware that there are plenty of opportunities coming along the way.

I learned to trade emotionless. I accept losses in grace, just as I accept wins in delight. I will not revenge my loss, instead I will let the market to play itself out and wait for next opportunity.

I learned to protect my profit by moving stop-loss to break-even. Occasionally, I will get stopped out, but as I trade with the trend, there is a high possibility that the price will keep trending and do not stop me out.

I learned to stay away during important news announcements. You could never anticipate the market moves during the news announcements. Furthermore, if you are making profit during normal trading, why should bother yourself with the news trading?:-"

SPECIAL MENTION
I also learned that forex trading is not a rocket science. Simplicity is often the right way to trade. For this, I would like to thank Jacko for making me a trend trader.

P/S
End year is approaching. Volume will be thin, spreads will get widen excessively, market will move erratically. Better go fishing and come back in January. B-)

chart h1 - 5 am Malaysia
yesterday low has been broken...
now testing 100% fibo extension level
should the support at 133.00 broken, 131.30 might be hit

 UPDATE:
6.00 pm having internet connection problem all day long ~x(
        price retraced to daily 50% fibo (135.88) 
        before continuing southward
        managed to close my position in profit [-o< 
3.00 am price breaks below 133.00
        will it continue southwards?? :-?

chart 15 min - 2.15 pm
short again at 136.87
1. daily fibo 50% level rejection
2. failure to break previous resistance
3. round number significance

now +50, SL moved to +1

UPDATE:
5.00 pm   closed 1/2 position at +150
          SL moved to +50 for the other 1/2 position
          price is truggling to break yesterday low
          UK Retail Sales data coming up at 5.30 pm
5.30 pm   extremely good UK data... 
          closed the remaining 1/2 position at +60
          will stay out until the dust settles down B-)
5.55 pm   did you see that? =))
          the beast shot up 290 pips and then dived 180 pip
          all that just within minutes...
          no wonder this pair is for the brave-hearted only :">
          and EJ moved 390 pips :-O

chart h1 - 5 pm Malaysia
price rejected again by 139.00
went short at 137.90 as the white trendline broken
now +35, already moved SL to +1

UPDATE:
6.30 pm   price is testing yesterday low
          will it go down to 135.40 (fibo 161.8% level)? :-?
8.07 pm   +180, SL moved to +80
8.12 pm   +245, price hit 135.40, SL moved to +120 \:D/
          will the beast test the previous low (132.30):-?
9.45 pm   stopped out at +150 [-o<

chart h4 - 1.40 pm Malaysia
dull tokyo market... (:|
three doji in a row...
a breakout is imminent... =P~
meanwhile, let us go bowling \:D/

UPDATED:
3.00 pm - breakout to the south [-o<
          will Frankfurt keep pushing the baby down? :-?
4.45 pm - the beast still dragging it's legs
          too slow a movement :(
          will UK CPI result at 5.30 pm wake the beast up? :-?
6:00 pm - just noticed a bearish breakaway pattern at h4
          will this means the bears are coming back? :-? 
9.00 pm - choppy price action
          stopped out at +80

chart 30 min - 4.30 pm Malaysia
went short at 136.87 due to:
1. failure to break major trendline
2. round number (137.00) significance
3. fibo level 23.6% level rejection
currently +65 and SL moved to +5 :D

UPDATE:
6.20 pm - stopped out at +50 

h4 chart at market close
139.00 - support turned to resistance
133.00 - previous low that needs to be broken
the previous descending pattern is still valid as long as price stays below 139.00
the triangle height indicates the possible target projection
will the beast hit 112.00 - 115.00 by Feb 2009? :-?

excerpt from John J. Murphy Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets

h4 chart - 6 am Malaysia
the beast is wandering aimlessly in the no man's land...
as long as the price is below the blue resistance level and major trendline, I will keep looking for sell positions...
a clean breakout of the white trendline should confirm a downward move...

UPDATE:



chart h1 - 12 pm Malaysia
abandoned baby pattern???
shorted earlier based on prior price action at smaller time frame
already moved SL to +1
let see how low the baby will go... :-"

12.30 pm - +490 in less of an hour...
           :-O :-O :-O
           reason of the free fall here at Bloomberg

UPDATE II:



chart 15 min - 6.00 pm
oohhh what an obedient baby :x
retraced EXACTLY to 38.2% fibo level and hit my sell limit
now already moved SL to +1 [-o< 
possible TP: 128.xx, then 124.xx

10.15 pm - price went up to 135.50
           stopped out in green
           enough for the week :D

chart h1 - 12 pm Malaysia
price keep ranging and forming a symmetrical triangle...

The symmetrical triangle can be seen and traded in either up trends, down trends, or sideways markets. When traders find this pattern on a chart they will look to trade in the direction of the breakout, as this is a sign that one direction either the bulls or the bears have won out over the other. Like ascending and descending triangles, traders will look to trade the break of the pattern, calculating their target by measuring the distance between the high and low at the start of the pattern. The stop will then be placed just outside of the nearest peak if the market breaks to the downside or the nearest trough if the market breaks to the upside.

source: informedtrades

UPDATE:
2.30 pm - triangle broken at the upside??
          now testing yesterday high (138.36)
          me ??? - stay out :D

UPDATE II:



chart 30 min - 4.30 pm
price failed to make clean break of yesterday high...
will London push the baby further down???
11.00 pm - just came back from an errand
           opened the chart and found out my TP 136.00 was hit...
           enough for today [-o<

chart h1 - 1.15 pm Malaysia
price is testing fibo 50% level of yesterday hi-lo
downwards journey should only be confirmed when the blue trendline is broken...

UPDATE



h4 chart at 6 pm Malaysia
price rejection at 23.6% fibo level???
last candle closed as a pinbar
strong indication that retracement has completed...
just be careful and keep looking for best entry to sell
:D
9.30 pm - called it a day.... price action too erratic...
          managed to get 17 pips only whole day :))

chart h4 - 10.24 am Malaysia
inside bars at h4
indicates market indecision
breakout might occur either way...
will wait for a full h1 candle to form outside the S/R levels before deciding on next course of action

UPDATE:



chart h1 - 1.40 pm Malaysia
price is testing the support at 137.15
should the support broken, price might hit 133.20..
went short early as the blue trendline broken...
impatient me... =))
already moved SL to +1 [-o< 

5.00 pm - price went down to 136.50
7.00 pm - choppy price action, stopped at +10
3.00 am - sell again at 136.62 as price was rejected by the resistance
          already moved SL to +5
          let's pray the beast keep going down [-o< 

weekly and h4 charts at market close
falling three method at weekly chart??

a continuation pattern, which shows a temporary break in the trend of prices without causing a reversal. ... After this temporary break, the downward trend continues.

however, price might retrace to the confluence of H4 immediate trendline and weekly 38.2% fibo level (around 141.25) before continuing southwards
should price breaks the last week low (133.26), it might test 125.29

UPDATE:



chart h1 - 6.30 pm Malaysia
was away whole morning celebrating Eid with family
price went up to 140.74
decided to go short at 139.14 as the price bounced off 50% fibo level
already +41 and moved SL to +7 

10.00 pm - my SL +7 was hit
           however h4 candle closed as a bearish harami
           went short again at 138.85, SL at 139.85 (100 pips risk)
11.00 pm - closed 1/2 position at+120
           moved SL for the other 1/2 position to +7
           now, i can go and sleep I-)

chart h1 - 9 am Malaysia
fibo 61.8% rejection??
should price break yesterday low (134.11), 131.50 is a possibility :-?

UPDATE:
3.30 pm - dull trading day :(
          price moves within a tight range of 70 pips
          investors might be waiting for NFP result tonight (9.30 pm)
9.45 pm - NFP pushed the price below 134.11..
          will the price continue downwards...??
          :-?

woke up and found out the beast closed at 136.34
here is the reason of the Dow Jones rally
crazy market :))

market is in cautious mode...
waiting for MPC announcement at 8 pm (Malaysia) tonight...

source: http://www.actionforex.com/

until then - better stay out :-w

UPDATE:



chart h1 - 3 pm Malaysia
could not resist myself =))
currently monitoring closely the support at 136.29....
should the support broken, the beast might dive to a new low... <:-P

4.00 pm
price hit new low at 136.11 \:D/
Jesse Livermore said:

5.15 pm
price hit 134.11 - already locked some profit
will ride the profit B-)

highwave candle at daily chart
indication of market uncertainty
expecting price to keep ranging for a while
might stay out today and wait for another breakout
hopefully to the downside :D

UPDATE:
5:30 pm
price attempts to break yesterday low
my sell stop at 136.80 was hit -SL at 137.50 (70 pips risk)
5.40 pm
+35 pips moved SL to +1
5.50 pm
does not like the price action
close 1/2 position at +18
the other 1/2 position remains at +1
6.00 pm
stopped at +1
total pip: 18+1=19 pips :))

will keep looking for another sell entry
price might hit 134.80 (161.8 fibo level of yesterday hi-lo)

h1 chart - 9 am Malaysia
phewww... 900 pips drop yesterday
now it is time for the price to retrace...
might hit 141.50 (fibo 61.8%) or 142.50 (fibo 50%) :-?
as usual, i'm waiting for confirmation to re-enter short at those levels..

UPDATE:
11.45 am:
bears look too strong - entered short at 139.56, already +34
5.00 pm:
1st attempt to break the stubborn support of 138.00

chart h4 - at market close
the beast entraps within 300 pips consolidation phase
the bulls and the bears agree - at least temporarily - on the beast's price level
a imminent breakout could happen in either direction
to guard against a false breakout, place a stop:

• below the upper BLUE trendline for a upwards breakout
• above the lower BLUE trendline if the price breaks downwards
  

good luck and happy trading B-)

UPDATE:



chart h1 - 5 pm Malaysia
went short earlier at 146.00 when the yellow trendline was broken
price is now testing the lower BLUE trendline
already closed 1/2 lot (+200 pips) and moved SL to +50 for the remaining 1/2 lot...
will ride the profit

6.40 pm: +500 pips, SL moved to +100
10:30 pm: added another short at 140.56 - now +57 and +600
1.30 am:

partial closed 2nd order at +200
now remaining open orders +200 and +750 (1/2 lot each)

expecting price to hit 134.xx soon [-o<

no trading today....
US is celebrating Thanksgiving...
expecting thin trading volume but could also be very volatile..
remember what happened last year Thanksgiving.. :-ss

daily chart - 6 am Malaysia
price bounced off minor trendline???
dragonfly candle??
explanation from http://candlesticker.com

UPDATE:
this is a swing trade... let see how far the beast will drop... :D
8.30 am: +180 pips, SL moved to +10
9.30 am: +140 pips
12.05 pm: +192 pips
5.30 pm: +110 pips, SL moved to +50
7.30 pm: +204 pips
9.00 pm: +238 pips
woke up next morning - SL hit... at least, i'm richer by 50 pips :-"

chart h1 - 7 am Malaysia
major trendline broken?? :-?
needs to break 148.00 for trend reversal confirmation...
otherwise, market will consolidate within 144.xx - 147.xx range
my sell position is already +50 TP:144.20
SL moved to +1

UPDATE:
9.30 am - SL moved to +100
10.30 am - stopped out at 100 pips [-o<
11.00 am - short again at 146.43 - already +30
12.45 pm - decided to bank-in 85 pips ;)

chart 30 min - 7.30 am Malaysia
went short at 143.38
minor trendline rejection???
S/R zone at 143.50 area...???
a risky trade but one which allows a tight SL (50 pips at 143.88)
let's see how market plays it out :-SS

UPDATE: by 8.00 am, price went down to 142.70 (+60 pips)
moved SL to +1
8.15 am - moved SL to +50 and set trailing stop of 70 pips
10.35 am - stopped out at 110 pips [-o<

chart h4 - at market close
some see triple bottom....
i see descending triangle....
too close to call...
better stay out and let's the market decide...
we just follow... B-)

chart 30 min - 3 pm Malaysia
hidden bearish divergence???
fibo 38.2% level acts as resistance???
let's pray London session push the beast downwards... [-o<

learn more about divergence at babypips

UPDATE: huhuhu... stubborn bulls..
the beast still went up...
hopefully the following set-up works this time..[-o<



chart h1 6.30 pm Malaysia
hidden bearish divergence again???
fibo 50% level(of two-day hi-lo) acts as resistance???

UPDATE II: price went down to 139.50 (potential of 290 pip gain)...
later it went up again to 143.00 due to the U.S. Stocks Rally

chart h4 - 4.36 am Malaysia
cup and handle pattern is in play...
see my previous post here...
false hammer candlestick indicates bears are in control...
get in sell position early due to prior price action at smaller TFs...
now +70... safe already... #:-S
immediate TP:136.30 (sorry guys,my new immediate TP now is 134.00) :">
long term TP:115.xx :D

UPDATE: stopped out in profit as price retraced upward
as of 3 pm, price went up to 141.45

chart h1 - 5 am Malaysia
crucial trendline broken!!!!
WELCOME BACK - BEARS.....
expecting 140.xx to be hit today...
<:-P \:D/
UPDATE: at 12.30 pm, price hit 142.20
already banked in +100 pips...
will keep selling on rallies...
at 4.45 pm, price hit 141.20
banked-in another 100 pips
hit my TP 140.30 at 10.30 pm
while i was sleeping...
another 90 pip banked-in..
[-o< B-)

30min chart - 3.30 am Malaysia
tough trading for a swing trader...
price kept bouncing up and down...
my earlier sell position was stopped out with some loss due to the false breakout...
only strict money management will save your account...
went short again at 144.99 and already moved SL to +10..
now still waiting for the trendline to be broken...

UPDATE: stopped out at +10...
the bull is still stubborn... :))

h1 chart - 6 am Malaysia
rising wedge (bearish pattern) or ascending triangle (bullish pattern)??
too close to call....
better stayout and wait....
:-w
bears need to break previous low (143.58), in order for the beast to dive...

chart h4 at market closing
possible inverted cup and handle pattern?
usually a indication of trend continuation...
a breakout below 139.xx should be the confirmation...
the height of the cup indicates the possible target...
hence, should the breakout occurs, mission 115.xx would begin...
dateline: two weeks...
B-)

learn more about cup and handle pattern here

chart h4 - 3 am Malaysia
double bottom formation....
price breaks upwards the previous trendline...
might reach 150.xx
already went long based on smaller TF price action...
already 100++ pips...
:D
p/s this is the FIRST time i ever went long since aug 4th..

UPDATE: SL +ve hit...
dow jones crushed at market closing... crazy friday... huhuhuhu
bears might be back next week...

chart h1 as of 2 pm Malaysia...
price in retracement mode..
might pull-back to 145.00 (confluence of previous broken trendline and 61.8% fibo level)
should price rejected by the green trendline, the beast will drop again...
:d
UPDATE: daily candle close at 144.93
amazing, isn't it?
now will the trendline acts as a resistance?

chart h4 - 8.15 am Malaysia
should the lower trendline is broken....
the red arrows will be my TPs...

UPDATE: erratic price action today...
only managed to scalp a few pips here and there...
however the set-up still valid...

at last, price hit 140.28 at 6 am Malaysia Nov 13th
price is now retracing up wards..

chart h4- 12.45 am Malaysia
price bounced off channel top...
strong bearish h4 candle....
had been selling on rallies all day long...
1st TP 150.50...
should the beast breaks the channel bottom, 139.xx is a possiblity...
B-)

chart h4 - 10 am Malaysia
price is testing crucial trendline...
price could either break through or rebounce off the trendline
meanwhile... staying out is the best option...
:D
p/s just went short 157.21 SL 157.71 (50 pip risk)
let see how the beast will play it out

UPDATE: by 11.40 am already +70
moved SL to +10
choppy price... closed at +45

h4 chart at market close
will price bounce off the white dotted trendline???
should 156.186 holds, 144.xxx is a possibility...
let's wait and see.....


UPDATE: market gapped upward
thus, this set-up is not valid...

something to ponder.....
the lower the interest rate.... the lower the currency value will be...

chart h4 - 8 am Malaysia
bearish evening star formation??
should price breaks 153.70, 150.xx is my target price

p/s BOE interest rate at 8 pm tonite
most likely cut to 4%
better avoid trading during that time

UPDATE: 20 hours later at 4 am, 153.70 was broken
hit 150.30 by 8.30 am
had been selling on rallies all day
really worth the waiting...
[-o<

chart h4 - at 2 pm Malaysis
three black crows???
usually a strong bearish pattern...
should bears persist, price might hit 148.70..
:D
UPDATE: price went down to 155.20 within next 4 hours
later went up to 161.xx

chart h4 - 6 am Malaysia
lower highs and lower lows...
despite 800 pips rally last night, the beast still respects the downtrend channel...
watchout the US presidential election result and adp non-farm payroll tonite...
market might be unpredictable...
:-SS

chart h1 - 3 pm Malaysia
price testing the confluence of lower trendline and support zones...
will it be broken??